If the country does not manage to achieve collective immunity by the end of the first half of the year, it could undergo a series of lockdowns lastingly affecting the activity.
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For the year 2021, Emmanuel Macron mentioned during his greetings to the French a “hope” which “grows every day” and “a revival which is already shuddering “. Economists, however, wonder and, often, panic.
The vaccine against Covid-19, supposed to sign the end of the pandemic and the health restrictions that have gripped the activity for nearly ‘one year, is ready. But the vaccination campaign is not progressing, or very little. As of January 1, 516 people had received a first injection of the Pfizer BioNtech vaccine (it takes two to be immunized) according to the Department of Health, compared to nearly a million in the UK and more 165,000 in Germany.
After the anger of the Head of State, lambasting a vaccination at “the pace of a family walk”, according to the Sunday Journal (JDD) of January 3, and while the oppositions go so far as to speak of a “state scandal”, the executive seems decided since Monday January 4 to accelerate. But he does not want to renounce his cautious vaccination strategy either, at the risk, warn experts, of mortgaging the economic recovery hoped for this year.
“A rebound in GDP [gross domestic product] 6% in 2021 as predicted by Bercy is now becoming heroic “, is alarmed in particular Patrick Artus, chief economist at Natixis bank. To hear it, the country could numb in a sluggish growth of the order of 2% to 3% this year while being unable to compensate for a recession close to 10% in 2020. “Three points of GDP is a million jobs and probably thousands of deaths. We store doses of vaccines in refrigerators but we do not use them. It’s criminal! “, loses the economist.
Stupefaction
In fact, the trend of contamination, deemed “worrying” by the Director General of Health Jérôme Salomon, suggests that the reopening of bars and restaurants, a time envisaged for January 20, will be pushed back. Theaters, cinemas, sports halls and other event players have little more hope.
If the word “confinement” is not yet pronounced, “we are coming”, thinks Patrick Artus. In total, with the containment or even the maintenance of the curfew, nearly 10% of GDP remains de facto paralyzed by Covid-19. Worse, Mr. Artus does not already exclude in his calculations a fourth, or even a fifth confinement, if the country does not manage to achieve collective immunity by the end of the first semester by vaccinating at least 26 million French people . The government’s goal is to vaccinate 14 million of the most vulnerable people by June.
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