American economists have assessed the negative impact of COVID-19 on trade and globalization. The corresponding report of the American National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is published on its website .
Experts came to the conclusion that the coronavirus pandemic will not lead to serious negative consequences for globalization.
Study author and professor of economics at Harvard University Paul Antras stated that Trade damage from COVID-19 is temporary. According to him, the volume of trade went up as soon as governments relaxed the lockdown, which means that in the near future, serious consequences for globalization due to the pandemic should not be expected.
The ratio of trade to world GDP – one of the main indicators of globalization – has remained stable over recent years, Antras said. However, he stressed that the share of migrants in the total population in 2018 reached its highest level since the 1990s.
“The pace of globalization has indeed slowed down in recent years compared to previous decades, but the stories from the lives of individual companies, which are considered to be proof of de-globalization, are not reflected in the overall statistics,” he concluded.
The economist also analyzed how the coronavirus pandemic affected the volume of different types of traffic. Antras compared the traffic during the pandemic with the average traffic for 2017-2019. Most of all, during the coronavirus, trucking sagged – in May they decreased by almost 50 percent, but by mid-July they had grown. As of the end of August, trucking stood at over 90 percent of the January 2020 average baseline before the pandemic. The volume of shipments by bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships declined slightly in April, but then increased again.
December 1 it was reported that the world economy next year will recover more at a slower pace than previously thought. Experts Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have denied the economy a quick recovery due to new coronavirus outbreaks, quarantine measures and vaccination delays.