The member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and their allies agreed to keep the CAP decided in October of a reduction of two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
MO12345lemonde with AFP
The representatives of the thirteen members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) led by Riyadh, and their ten allies led by Moscow (who form the OPEC+set), agreed on Sunday, December 4 to keep the CAP decided in October by a reduction of two million barrels per day until the end of 2023.
An OPEC+ press release confirmed the maintenance of the previous decision, which had been taken to support the courses and had aroused the ire of the White House anxious to lower prices to the pump.
Since then, the courses of the two world references of black gold have lost ground and are between 80 and 85 dollars (75 and 80 euros), far from their peaks at more than $ 130 reached in March after the start of the invasion of Ukraine. Which, “retrospectively”, validates our strategy, welcomes the cartel. “It was the course of action to adopt to stabilize markets,” he argues.
The next meeting was set for June 4, 2023, but the group said it was ready to come together “at any time” by then to take “immediate additional measures” if necessary.
“Uncertainty about the impact on the production of Russian crude”
The largely anticipated decision was made after a quick videoconferencing meeting, the alliance reconnecting with its habits taken during the Pandemic of Covid-19 after an exceptional meeting in early October in Vienna, OPEC+seat. This status quo is justified in particular by “uncertainty as to the impact on the production of Russian crude” of the new sanctions train, commented for AFP Giovanni Stauvono, analyst of UBS.
Russia is a standing wind against the ceiling on the price of its oil that the European Union, the G7 and the Australia have planned to set up on Monday “or very shortly after”. It is also that day that the EU’s embargo begins on Russian crude crude crude, which will delete two thirds of its purchases in Moscow. Objective of these measures: to deprive Moscow of the means to finance his war in Ukraine.
The price of the barrel of gross of the Ural is currently evolving around 65 dollars (61 euros), barely more than the ceiling of 60 dollars (56 euros), involving a limited short -term effect. But the Kremlin warned that it would no longer deliver oil to the countries which would adopt this mechanism.
What to place certain nations “in a very uncomfortable position: choose between losing access to cheap Russian crude or exposing yourself to the sanctions of the G7”, explains Craig Erlam, analyst at Oanda.
Lye prices
Another element that played in OPEC +’s decision, according to UBS expert, “a certain reduction” of the strict health restrictions in China, likely to mitigate market worries. The demand of this country, which is the first importer of crude in the world, is scrutinized by investors, and the slightest sign of slowdown in the economy or epidemic revival directly on the courses.
In this gloomy context and faced with the fears of a global recession, the Brent of the North Sea and its American equivalent, the WTI, fell by around 8 % from the last meeting of the Alliance at the start of ‘October.
If OPEC+ opted for caution on Sunday, the alliance could in the coming months “adopt a more aggressive position”, in a warning to the West which bristles the cartel by regulating prices, prognostic Edoardo Campanella , Analyst of Unicredit.
What “aggravates the global energy crisis”, he warned. And arouse the ire of Washington, whose diplomatic efforts with Riyadh to lower prices have failed.