The gross domestic product will contract 0.2 % in the fourth quarter, according to INSEE, which estimates that in 2022 growth should be 2.5 %. In the short term, France should escape the recession thanks to a slight burst of activity in early 2023.
by Béatrice Madeline
Households confronted with inflation that reduces their consumption, companies that produce less to compensate for the shock of energy prices: with two growth engines that turn in slow motion, the French economy will end the year On a negative note.
The gross domestic product (GDP) should contract, in this fourth quarter, 0.2 %, according to forecasts from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) published Thursday, December 15. A forecast more pessimistic than the previous projections which tabbed on zero growth over this period.
Inflation, on the other hand, seems to stabilize. The price increase in twelve months was indeed 6.2 % at the end of November, according to the indicators, also published Thursday, December 15, an unchanged figure compared to that of October. This stabilization is explained by the slowdown in the increase in energy prices in recent weeks, while food prices have continued to display increases of 12 % on average.
“a Fluching “
For the French economy, which would finish 2022 on growth of 2.5 %, compared to 6.8 % in 2021, year of the post-Cavid-19 recovery, it is more a “cooling “, According to the term chosen by national statisticians, only an entry into recession. “We are not planning a break in activity, not even a technical recession, but rather a flexibility,” said Julien Pouget, head of the Department of the economic situation at INSEE.
A bent which, moreover, could be short -lived, the activity reappearing in the green at the start of the year. INSEE tables an increase in GDP of 0.1 % in the first quarter of 2023 and 0.3 % in the second, despite a slight increase in inflation which would reach 7 % at the start of the year .
This peak of inflation is largely linked at the end of the delivery to the pump of 10 cents per liter of fuel, which must end on December 31, 2022, and which will help to enhance the inflation of 0 , 1 point. To this will be added the increase of 15 % of the regulated gas prices (+0.2 inflation point) and then electricity in February (+0.4 point). Food prices will increase a little more to reach an average of 13 % increase at the start of the year, “due to the low level of stocks and droughts of summer 2022”, explains the experts of the economic institute. It will be necessary to wait until spring for inflation to start slowing down: at the end of June, it would be around 5.5 %.
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