Decided as a reprisals for Western sanctions, this measure will intervene from February 1, 2023.
by Benoît Vitkine (Moscow, correspondent) and Marjorie Cessac
The showdown committed between Moscow and Westerners about Russian oil exports is becoming clearer – and everything suggests that it will be long. Tuesday, December 27, the Kremlin brought its response to the price cap of price capped at the beginning of the month by the European Union (EU), the G7 and Australia.
An Oukase signed by Vladimir Putin prohibits the sale of Russian oil to all entities (“foreign legal persons and other individuals”) who would comply with this mechanism. This prohibition will come into force on 1 er February 2023, and should extend until 1 er July.
The Western cap was decided on December 5. It prohibits European, American, British, Canadian, Japanese and Australian businesses from providing services allowing maritime transport (freight, insurance, etc.) from Russian oil to third countries in the event that the price exceeds the ceiling of 60 dollars (56 euros ) a barrel.
This decision, which kyiv or Warsaw had deemed too modest – the ceiling price being close to the prices of Russian oil, the crude of the Urals, at 65 dollars per barrel – completes a more radical measure: the embargo Complete on the Russian crude that these countries apply to themselves, also entered into force on December 5. The objective is in both cases to reduce Moscow’s ability to finance its “special operation” in Ukraine.
reorientation of global oil geopolitics
The Russian part had first replied, at the end of last week, threatening to reduce its production, early 2023, from 500,000 to 700,000 barrels per day (about 5 % to 7 % of the total), to do Raise prices. The presidential Oukase signed on Tuesday is the second stage of this response to Western offensives. If it confirms, unsurprisingly, the Kremlin will not to give in, the observers, on the Russian side, insist rather on its limited character. Point 4 of the document opens the door to exemptions, by presidential decision. Europeans had also suggested possible softenings.
Then, the text evokes trading entities on the basis of contracts explicitly mentioning the Western cap – in other words, these entities – national companies from third -party countries or Western intermediate – could, to escape the Russian prohibition, respect the Western ceiling without displaying it openly.
Unpublished, these respective sanctions, however, have a range still difficult to measure. While Moscow is looking for other outlets for its raw, Westerners turn to other suppliers. A reorientation of global oil geopolitics is at work, with more Russian black gold circulating towards Asia and more European imports from the United States, the Middle East or Africa.
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