The Washington institution estimates that global growth should hardly exceed 1.7 % this year. Underinvestment and food insecurity will continue to weaken the most vulnerable countries.
by Marie Charrel
“The new year will be more difficult than the one we leave behind.” On January 2, the Director General of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, had opened the ball by making these dark remarks on the American channel CBS. Tuesday, January 10, the World Bank, the other great institution of Washington, followed suit, by seriously revising its growth forecasts.
Now, it estimates that the global economy should increase by only 1.7 % in 2023, against 3 % still expected in June, after 2.9 % in 2022. Excluding periods of recession, it would be the most low growth rate recorded for three decades. “This brutal slowdown should be generalized, forecasts being revised downwards for 95 % of advanced economies, whose growth should not exceed 0.5 % in 2023, and almost 70 % of emerging and developing countries,” said The World Bank.
This is more pessimistic than the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which was tapped on global growth of 2.2 % in November 2022, and which the IMF, which was betting on 2.7 % in October 2022. “Our central scenario does not provide for a generalized recession, but the weaknesses are such that some countries plunge there,” add the experts of the World Bank.
Energy crisis
In detail, the euro zone, struck hard by the energy crisis, will not be far from the contraction: despite the good resistance of employment, growth should be zero this year, after 3 , 3 % in 2022. The United States should hardly grow by more than 0.5 % in 2023 – the lowest growth rate excluding recession since 1970 – and China, only 4.3 %. Not to mention the latter, the gross domestic product (GDP) of all emerging and developing countries should increase by 2.7 %, after 3.8 % in 2022.
This slowdown is largely resulting from the war in Ukraine and its consequences – inflation of raw materials, even if the energy prices have relaxed in recent weeks, disturbance of production chains, uncertainty -, as well as slowdown Of the three major engines of the world economy, European Union, United States and especially China. “The brake of the Middle Empire mainly affects large exporting countries of raw materials, especially in Africa and South America, as well as the Eastern Asian countries integrated into Chinese production chains”, details the institution.
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