The GDP of the second economy on the planet only increased by 3 % last year, the worst figure, excluding COVID crisis of 2020, since 1976.
By Frédéric Lemaître (Beijing, correspondent)
The elites of Davos as the Chinese power dream of it: forget 2022, its confinements, its boats which remain at the quay, its factories which, at best, turn in slow motion, its closed shopping centers and its deserted airports, to bounce better And so that China is again, in 2023, one of the main drivers of global growth.
Statistics published Tuesday, January 17, prove that the path will be difficult. In 2022, the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) increased only by 3 %. The worst figure since 1976, with the exception of 2020 (2.24 %), marked by the paralysis of the country in the first quarter. Far, above all, of the objective announced in March 2022, which was “about 5.5 %”. After growth – over one year – 4.8 % in the first quarter, 0.4 % in the second, from 3.9 % to the third, China ends with an increase in activity – always over one year – from 2.9 % in the fourth quarter.
In 2022, Chinese growth was therefore in tune with the world economy. For the first time in decades, she has therefore not played her role as a locomotive. On the contrary, other emerging countries have grown much better from the game. It is even rather the rest of the world that fired China, with exports up 10.5 %, while imports have increased by 4.3 %. Result: foreign trade has a record surplus of 5,863 billion yuan, or more than 800 billion euros (compared to 597 billion euros in 2021). Whatever we say, the decoupling of economies is far from obvious.
Urban unemployment up
On the other hand, cloistered at home because of zero covid policy, the Chinese consumer remained frugal. The retail sale of consumer goods even fell 0.2 % over the year. If, overall, the investment increased by 5 %, it is essentially due to (public) investments in infrastructure (+ 9.4 %) and those manufacturing (+ 9.1 %). As expected, real estate collapsed ( – 10 %), sales of commercial areas even dived by 24 %.
Another logical consequence of this low consumption: urban unemployment increased from 5.1 %, in December 2021, to 5.5 %, in December 2022 (for young people aged 16 to 24, it increased by 14 , 3 % to 16.7 %). For its part, inflation has remained controlled, with a 2 % increase in consumer prices.
In 2022, the cost of expenses related to the zero covid strategy was phenomenal. The only province of Guangdong (126 million inhabitants, a little less from the tenth of the Chinese population) assesses its own to 146.8 billion yuan in three years: 30.3 billion yuan in 2020, 45.4 billion In 2021 and 71.1 billion in 2022. An exponential increase which speaks volumes about the infernal machine that had become the zero covid policy for public spending, and which largely explains the abandonment of it, the 7th December 2022. Especially since consisting mainly of police tests and measures to isolate districts, even cities, these expenses cannot be seriously qualified as investments.
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