Government projections do not go beyond 2030, as the effects of its project remain uncertain in the long term.
by elsa conesa
The government sees it as a “fair” reform and carrying “progress”, before “preserving” the system “by 2030”, repeat the ministers responsible for defending the pension reform in recent days. By 2030, but after? At the end of the 2027 presidential election, will the executive have to put the work on the profession? The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, admits it in private: this reform is not the last. In France there is a pension reform every five or six years, it is impossible to promise that one of them will be final in such an uncertain field.
The ambiguity did not appear recently. When he was in the campaign, Emmanuel Macron himself had spoken of “review clause”, to convince that a decline in the age of departure at 65 was “not a dogma” but a “horizon au- Beyond 2030 “, with stages. “There are good reasons to think that this reform is not the last,” sums up economist Michaël Zemmour, lecturer at Paris-I-Panthéon-Sorbonne University and pension specialist, for whom Ci “leaves the following government the possibility to extend the line in 2027”. Clearly, to continue playing on the parameters of age and duration of subscription.
In fact, the documents and graphics provided by the government do not go beyond 2030. The curve is stopped after being ironed in the green. The parameters were calibrated as accurately as possible to achieve balance on this date. Partly for political reasons: there is no question of showing that the reform could report more than necessary, or to unnecessarily display a system in excess. Without reform, projections show a deficit of 13.5 billion in 2030, the government’s project allows it to be filled to the billion. /Div>
The decline in the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 years, combined with the acceleration of the pace to which the duration of contribution will increase to forty-three years, thus reports 17.7 billion euros in 2030, according to the project presented by the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, on January 10. Support measures – Maintaining legal age at 62 for disability, long career device, revaluation of small pensions in particular – cost nearly 5 billion euros on this horizon. An invoice which will increase, in all likelihood, during the debate in Parliament, with for example the extension of the revaluation of small pensions to current retirees (and not only to new), estimated at 1 billion euros. The executive is little room for maneuver for unforeseen events.
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