At the dawn of union and political mobilizations, the government tries to make believe that its reform project is inevitable. The main argument is based on an anticipation of deficit in the pension system, pointing to the decrease in the number of assets compared to retirees.
Now, the problem is not so much the increase in the share of the elderly in the total population as the economic weight that all people (said) inactive – retirees, students, unemployed, etc. – on those that produce wealth from a monetary point of view – busy assets.
Now, this ratio, known as “economic dependence”, has been generally stable for fifty years even though the number of retirees continues to increase and the unemployment rate, which depends on economic policies put in work, has experienced historical peaks.
a difficult forecast exercise
In reality, the demographic effects of the rise in life expectancy and baby boom have already been integrated in previous decades: the Balladur (1993), Fillon (2003 and 2010) and Touraine (2014) reforms (1993) and Touraine (2014) have resulted in fact to a decrease in the level of pensions. In addition, the growth of life expectancy is reduced. It has gone from one quarter a year in the 2000s to a month today.
But above all, according to INSEE, in 2020 Healthy life expectancy at birth is only 64.4 years for men and 65.9 years for women, workers and employees being The most affected by a limitation of daily activities: a third of the workers and a quarter of the employees are already unable the first year of their retirement.
If deficit ago in the coming years, he will be a passenger and marginal, between 0.4 % and 0.7 % gross domestic product (GDP), which is minimal compared to the weight of pensions (14 % GDP) and represents only about 1 % of the payroll. In addition, this forecast exercise is difficult.
calculations, by the COR, with a recession between 2027 and 2032
For example, the 2013 pension orientation council (Cor) report projected a deficit of 22 billion euros for the year 2022, which contradicts the surplus of 3 billion ultimately noted. In addition, the hypotheses for calculating the horn can be questionable, as shown by the 2022 report. In it, the horn is obliged to predict a rise in unemployment which would go from 5 % in 2027, forecast of the government, to 7 % in 2032 and for the following decades.
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