Sweet temperatures and drop in activity partly explain this drop. But its repercussions on the invoices of individuals and companies will not be immediate.
by marjorie cessac
It is a a priori confusing but rather positive scenario, even if the reasons which underlie it are not necessarily the most promising of hope. Influenced by an extraordinary winter for its sweetness and slowdowns of the world of the world, the energy prices display a fragile respite, after a frantic increase last year, accelerated by the war in Ukraine. After having paid more than 300 euros per megawatt hour (MWH), in August 2022, gas prices began to drop to fall in half since mid-December and now settle around 70 euros per MWh. In their wake, the prices of electricity on the wholesale markets, partly influenced by those of gas, experienced a compaction in France in December, and reached at the start of the week 170 euros on the MWh, again very far from the most 700 euros high in the summer of 2022.
“In November and December, investors rather anticipated prices for gas around 200 euros per MWh, and we are at 70 euros, which therefore constitutes a real surprise”, notes Xavier Timbeau, economist and director of the ‘French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Like other experts, he judges the conditions met, and in particular the level of stocks fulfilled around 85 %, so that these prices no longer ignite as much, at least until next summer, the continuation being also conditioned by energy saving measures and by the availability of the nuclear fleet. “If we expect 150 days of cold on average, and 50 have already passed, the risk over the coming months remains lower since stocks are still well filled, even if it has not necessarily disappeared”, ABSUD ALRIC MARC, President of the company EFICIA, specialized in the energy efficiency of buildings.
Sustainable or not, this still fragile relaxation should not be felt immediately on consumer bills and those of companies, who say they are strangled by exorbitant energy prices. In France, in fact, individuals have essentially chosen to have a regulated electricity and gas rate, the principle of which is to smooth the price fluctuations in wholesale markets. “This regulated electricity rate is based in part on an average of the previous two years. At 1 er February 2023, the fixed prices will depend on the previous quotes, which, to do quickly, means that The drop in prices on the term markets today will not affect it in any event not before 2024, “recalls Vincent Maillard, co -founder and president of Plüm Energie, an electricity supplier.
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