Despite the shock of stopping Russian gas deliveries, the economy turns out to be more resilient than anticipated. The weight of the heavy industries should however decrease.
by Cécile Boutelet (Berlin, Correspondence)
For a few days, there has been a wind of cautious optimism in German economic circles. After the “Zeitenwende”, name given to the “historic turning point” that constituted the Russian aggression in Ukraine in German foreign and commercial policy, many were tabling on a very large -scale economic shock, which would mark the start of a strong deindustrialization of Germany. However, in the chiaroscuro of the transition to the new year, the painting that takes shape is far from being as dark as they are anticipated.
Most indicators show that the German economy has so far resisted the crisis. The IFO index of the morale of the bosses, published at the end of December 2022, left upwards for the third time in a row. That of the KFW bank, which probes medium -sized companies, also displayed an upturn in December.
The Kiel Institute anticipates a slight growth of 0.3 % in 2023, and no longer a recession of 0.7 %. “We do not live on a megarecession, and even less a deindustrialization of Germany,” said the economist Council of the Government, Ulrike Malmendier, in Handelsblatt, January 3.
The strongest shock obviously concerns the most energy -consuming industries – chemistry, metal, glass, cement, ceramic, paper. According to data from the Institute of Statistics, they experienced a massive contraction of their production in one year: – 12.6 % between October 2021 and October 2022.
The largest decline concerns chemistry, the third German industrial sector, whose production fell by 20 %. This dropout is much reorganization: the Basf chemical giant, for example, has ceased to produce ammonia in Europe, a basic gas compound in chemistry (NH 3 ). It imports it from abroad, but has not ceased its production of other molecules with higher added value.
“industrial fetish”
All companies will not be able to adapt in this way. For certain activities, such as foundries, the long -term competitiveness of Germany as a production site seems compromised, say most of the experts. Very energy consumption industries represent 15 % of the total German industrial production, which itself covers 25 % of the gross domestic product.
Martin Brudermüller, the boss of BASF, announced, in November 2022, his intention to “permanently” reduce his production capacities in Europe and continues to bet on China. In the same branch, certain groups like Lanxess intend to invest in the United States, where gas is now three times cheaper than on this side of the Atlantic.
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