These variations in wholesale prices are not reflected directly in the prices invoiced to consumers, because suppliers smooth their prices, a fortiori in this period when prices can jump from one day to the next.
mo12345lemonde with AFP
The wholesale price of natural gas in Europe has fallen at its lowest level since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. The reference price of natural gas in Europe – the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) – oscillated, Monday, January 2, around 73 euros. This wholesale price, which has lost almost 50 % in a month, has been largely descended from the summer peaks: in August 2022, he had culminated at 342 euros.
The gas prices began to increase before the war in Ukraine, but they really jumped from February 24, 2022. The closure of several gas pipelines between Russia and Europe, until then its first client, A mechanically increased prices, since there was less gas arriving on the continent.
Exports from Gazprom gas to the European Union and Switzerland dropped by 55 % in 2022, the group announced on Monday. The Russian company delivered 62 billion cubic meters to Europe in 2022, against 138 billion in 2021, according to an estimate of Thierry Bros, energy market analyst and teacher at Sciences Po.
Why do prices fall today?
Prices drop because Europe has completed its reserves to the brim last summer; Then because the fall was very soft; Finally because households and companies have voluntarily reduced their consumption.
Stocks are therefore very comfortable for the start of the year and there is less need to buy gas. Monday, the European stocks filling rate of gas amounted to 83.3 %. French stocks are 84 %full, the Germans at 90 %, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.
The price of gas is affected on electricity, as many European power plants burn gas to produce electricity. In France, the price of wholesale electricity for delivery in 2023, which had exceeded 1,000 euros per megawatt hour at the end of August, fell at 240 euros on Friday, at the lowest since April.
But these variations in wholesale prices are not reflected directly in the prices invoiced to consumers, because suppliers smooth their prices, a fortiori in this period when prices can jump from one day to the next.
analysts remain very cautious
However, analysts warn against the unpredictability of the market for the coming months. “It all depends on what Vladimir Putin decides about gas flows to Europe,” said Bros. Bros. “He could send less, but he could also send more in certain directions in the hope of dividing European countries between them. This is what some academics call the” principle of uncertainty of the Kremlin “which thus tests the ‘European unit. “
For example, he quotes the possibility for Russia to export gas thanks to a gas pipeline passing through Belarus, in the hope of interest countries like Italy or Germany.
“If Europe does not receive at least 30 billion cubic meters of Russian gas, it will be complicated to fill the storage this summer and the prices may go up,” alerts the analyst. Nevertheless, the continent is “better prepared” than last year, specifies Mr. Bros. In January 2022, before the trigger of the conflict, European gas reserves were only full of 54 %.
Same uncertainty on the industrial side. “If there is a cold wave at the end of January, the prices will start upwards,” warns Nicolas de Warren, president of the Uniden, who brings together in France the most energy -consuming industries (chemical, Pharmaceutical, steel industry, food, etc.). It also fears competition for cargo liquefied natural gas (LNG) between Europe and Asia, where the prices charged are “now higher than European prices”.
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to ensure more visibility for the European industries, “what will be negotiated now is to return to the gas to long -term contracts With exporting countries, Norway, Qatar, Nigeria, Iraq possibly, “he said.