Russian withdrawal confirms the ability of the Ukrainian high command to succeed in major offensives. The loss of the buffer zone north of the DNIEPR river weakens the territory annexed by Moscow in 2014.
by Emmanuel Grynszpan
The DniePr clearly separates enemies, who are observed in the twin over her majestic flow. The initial fears of a Russian trap intended to attract Ukrainian troops to a very deadly urban fight in the city of Kherson did not materialize. kyiv has regained control of all 4,500 km 2 occupied by Russia on the right bank of the Dniepr.
Ukraine won a victory with beautiful parameters, in the first place the lack of civil blood sampling. Using Himars missiles and Western artillery pieces (French Caesar, M777 American M777, German PZH-2000, among others) since August August August), it has broken the logistics of the invader and forced it to retreat. This counter-offensive was not obvious in a steppe area with a natural obstacle, the Ingoulets river, but very few trees facilitating infiltration operations.
It seems that the Ukrainian forces had neither the numerical superiority required for the offensives, nor a comfortable number of armored vehicles to protect their troops. Kherson’s victory is the sum of intelligence and Western arms deliveries, which allow the Ukrainian army, whose clean arsenal is exsangue, to strike the invader quickly and with precision up to 70 km beyond of the front line. But also, and above all, the impressive bravery and the determination of Ukrainian soldiers to release their territory.
Opposite, Russia seems to have succeeded in its evacuation, since it does not seem to be significant contingents of Russian prisoners of war. In all likelihood, the evacuation of the right bank by the Russians was planned for a long time in advance, and had started before mid-October, as shown by satellite images published by the Ukrainian investigation site Skhemi. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian staff was notified. Unable to evacuate heavy equipment, the Russian army has been forced to destroy part of it, the rest added to the 2,500 “trophies” that the Ukrainian army has already returned against its aggressor.
Crimea transformed into a besieged fortress
Russian withdrawal, however, poses several challenges to Ukraine. Having fell behind the large natural barrier formed by the Dniepr, Russia sees the front line shrink with a blow of 300 km. An amphibious operation to attack the left bank head on appears to be extraordinarily risky for kyiv.
The arrival of “fresh blood”, in the form of the troops mobilized, will allow Moscow to build its assault on Bakhmout and to strongly densify the remaining 500 km of the front line. This will complicate the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the regions of Louhansk and Zaporijia. Because kyiv does not want a front that freezes this winter and allows Russia to reconstruct its forces for a second round next year.
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