While raising its anticipations, the European Commission also announced on Friday a recession at the end of the year. In question, mainly, the outbreak of the price of energy linked to war in Ukraine.
Le Monde with AFP
Brussels darkened again, Friday, November 11, its economic forecasts. The European Commission strongly increased its inflation forecast in the euro zone for 2023, at 6.1 %, against only 4 % expected so far.
On the whole of 2022, Brussels also tables a higher than expected price increase, at 8.5 %, against 7.6 % expected previously. These new figures are explained in particular by the outbreak of energy prices linked to the conflict in Ukraine, explains the commission in a press release.
“The uncertainty remains exceptionally high” due to the unpredictable evolution of the war, warned the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, during a press conference. “The risk is mainly that of figures even worse.”
GDP only 0.3 %
Even if he anticipates a return of growth in the spring, the Brussels executive announced a recession at the end of the year. It has thus revised in sharp decline its forecast for increased GDP for 2023, at only 0.3 % for countries in the euro zone, against 1.4 % expected so far. “The EU, the euro zone and most member countries should dive into recession in the last quarter of this year, predicted the Commission. The EU is one of the most affected advanced savings [by the war in Ukraine], in Reason for its geographic proximity (…) and its high dependence on gas imports from Russia. “
“The energy crisis erodes the purchasing power of households and weighs on production. The trusted indicators have dropped sharply,” she still detailed. Consequently, “the figures expected for 2023 are significantly lower regarding growth, and higher concerning inflation,” she noted.