Météo-France evaluates for the first time the consequences of different warming scenarios in the area, with a resolution of three kilometers.
by
A warming which could go up to 6 ° C locally compared to the period 1981-2010; An alternation of longer and more severe droughts with more dense rainy episodes; A higher proportion of intense cyclones … For the first time, Météo-France assesses the impact of global warming by 2100 in the southwest of the Indian Ocean, which brings together Reunion, Maurice, Madagascar, Mayotte, the Seychelles and the Comoros.
Four years of research have been necessary to carry out The Brio project (“Building Resilience in the Indian Ocean”), whose data was presented for the first time on the sidelines of the Swiocof forum (South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum) in September in Victoria, capital of the Seychelles. It provides precise local data, with a resolution of three kilometers, on the effects of global warming which already affects the area.
In Reunion, Météo-France observes an average temperature increase of 0.9 ° C over the last fifty-three years, as well as warming the Indian Ocean (on the surface of the water) From to 0.5 ° C to 0.6 ° C between 1968 and 2018, with an acceleration of warming over the past ten years. The level of the Indian Ocean amounted an average of 5 millimeters per year over the period 1993-2017, or 12 centimeters over this period. 2>
projections based on the IPCC
To establish their projections until the end of the century, the brio teams left the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Evolution (IPCC). The pessimistic scenarios correspond to a doubling of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with the use without brake of fossil fuels. “The most optimistic scenario is that where states and their savings manage to reduce gas emissions by arriving in 2080 to a” net zero emission “thanks to carbon well technologies”, details Emmanuel CLOPPET, interregional director of Météo-France for the Indian Ocean. The intermediary scenario provides for a maintenance of current greenhouse gas emissions up to the half of the century before a decrease.
In the worst scenarios, temperatures will increase by 2100 from 3 ° C to 5 ° C by Southwest Indian Ocean by the period 1981-2010. This warming will be even higher on the African coast and in the lands of Madagascar with an increase of 5 ° C to 6 ° C. It is less in the islands, surrounded by the ocean which absorbs the increase in temperatures better. In the optimistic scenario – now considered very unlikely given the current trend of emissions – warming will be limited to 1.5 ° C at the end of the century. And at 2 ° C for the median.
You have 59.36% of this article to read. The continuation is reserved for subscribers.