Noting an increasing “educational polarization”, David Shor, specialist in the evolution of the Democratic Party, explains to the “world” the existential issue for this training to reconnect with the least graduate population.
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In the field of surveys and opinion studies, republicans and American democrats have their gurus. As the mid-term elections on November 8, particularly uncertain, are approaching, they occupy a growing place in public debate. David Shor is one of them. Of Moroccan origin, this son of a doctor and a rabbi is one of the most followed voices on the left. He began his analyst career in the Barack Obama team during his re -election in 2012. Today, this 31 -year -old consultant is at the head of his own company, Blue Rose Research, installed in New York, where he compiles data on the evolution of the Democratic Party in the United States.
The ruling party loses the mid-term elections, with a rare exception, as after the September 11 attacks 2001…
If we look at the history of the mid-term elections, we realize that the power democrats have decreased in almost all these polls since the late 1930s. The dominant theory wants the voters to be reluctant to upheavals . They tend to vote for the party in the opposition in order to stop the changes in progress, even if they do not necessarily agree with all that this party conveys. What is unique in the current electoral cycle is that the republican party has managed to embody radical changes, without controlling either the presidency or the congress. As we have seen in opinion studies as well as in the by -elections which followed the decision of the Supreme Court on abortion at the end of June, this resulted in the Democrats by a renewed enthusiasm. But it was this summer. We do not know how it will be translated Tuesday, November 8.
I have already known six electoral cycles. This one is the most bizarre of all. We entered this year 2022 with the feeling that the elections would be a butcher’s shop for the Democrats. The very fact that we are now debating our chances of keeping the Senate, shows how much the situation has changed. If we were within the framework of a normal election, the Democrats should lose between 40 and 50 seats in the House and four to five in the Senate.
what has changed in American politics since The presidential election of 2020?
I would go back the question. What matters is continuity. Educational polarization has increased. The big changes occurred between 2016 and 2020. The gap between the working class and the graduate voters increased substantially, in particular due to the epidemic of COVID-19, the restrictions taken and the vaccination, very subjects polarizers. The other upheaval was the fact that Hispanic and non -white voters have largely turned from the Democrats, as shown by the 2020 ballot. We wondered about the continuity of these trends, we thought they were associated with Donald Trump , to the fact that his name was on the bulletin. However, their causes are structural, we also see the trace in countries in Europe.
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