Under the effect of a mild weather, well -filled stocks and a slowdown in economic activity, the prices revive their levels before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
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Would it be the beginning of a real lull? For several weeks, the price of gas on European markets has experienced a marked reflux. Wednesday, October 26, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the main reference on the old continent, went below 100 euros per megawatt hour (MWH), against 110 euros on Monday, which now registers it in the wake of prices affected Before the start of the invasion in Ukraine by Russia, February 24.
A level certainly always far beyond the average of 46 euros around which he sailed in 2021, but clearly below the highest, at 330 euros, reached in the middle of August. Peaks which had had a corollary an electricity price of electricity at 700 euros per MWh (against 180 euros per MWh on Wednesday). This relaxation could reassure all the more than in the United States also the prices of gas on the Texan market fall under production which is struggling to be sold.
So, real or fleeting embellished? “It is too early to say. It will be necessary to see how it evolves with the arrival of winter,” explains the world of Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (AIE), who published Thursday Its annual report on global energy prospects. For the time being, this price reflux is explained, according to him, mainly by “the mild weather”, as well as “destruction of demand in Europe”. A context to which is added “the important supply of liquefied natural gas [GNL]”, as evidenced by the bottled presence of Lightners near European ports.
“Things can put back very quickly”
Experts recall that short -term market prices are volatile rising and downwards. “Things can change very quickly if the activity returns to China and it is starting to be colder,” says the director of the Economy and Energy Research Center, Jacques Percebois, adding that “individual consumers whose prices are indexed to wholesale prices could benefit from this drop”.
Nevertheless, and this is a sign not to underestimate, investors continue, in the term markets, to anticipate fairly high electricity prices, around 400 to 500 euros per megawatt hour. In addition, beyond these doubts for this winter, the uncertainties remain for a little later, as soon as the stocks are exhausted and that it will be necessary to think of their reconstruction. “Unless there is a large -scale unexpected problem, destruction of major infrastructure for example, Europe should not encounter major supply difficulties this winter,” said Fatih Birol.
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