After two consecutive declines, American GDP gained 2.6 % in the third quarter. But the announcement comes when the GAFAMs saw $ 1,000 billion going up in smoke to Wall Street in two days, a sign of an upcoming slowdown.
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It’s Jean-Qui-Fleure and Jean-Qui-Rit. The United States has resumed growth in the third quarter, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of 2.6 % at an annual rate, according to figures published Thursday, October 27. At the same time, the technology giants, the famous GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft), collapse in Wall Street and have destroyed, since Wednesday evening, nearly $ 1,000 billion (as much D ‘euros) of value. Explanation of this paradox: the figure of growth concerns the past, while the reaction of the stock market is due to the gloomy forecasts of the tech giants, which suggest a slowdown, even a recession.
On the past growth, the country benefited from an excellent third quarter, after having experienced two consecutive declines in the first and second quarters (1.6 % then 0.6 %). Less than two weeks before the mid-term elections, which promises to be very difficult for the Democrats, President Joe Biden immediately issued a satisfaction statement. “For months, pessimists have argued that the American economy is in recession, and the Republicans of the Congress have encouraged a slowdown. But today, we have new evidence that our economic recovery continues to move forward,”, The Democratic President was delighted, while unemployment is at the lowest (3.5 %) and inflation still very high (8.2 %).
The figure, better than expected, satisfies everyone because it is misleading. It allows the White House to jubilant and ensure that there was no recession in the first half – usually, it is considered that there is a recession when the GDP decreases two consecutive quarters, which is passed, but the White House and the Federal Reserve (FED) estimated that this was not the case due to the excellent employment of employment. In reality, growth is very largely explained by the good performance of the external balance, with a sharp increase in hydrocarbon exports.
landing of the real estate market
But consumption, the main engine of the economy, only increased by 1.4 points (slight decline of 1.2 points for goods and increase of 2.8 points in the services), while the ‘investment fell 8.5 %. And it’s excellent, since this figure attests that the economy begins to cool. This step is essential if the Fed wants to defeat inflation. “Ignore the overall figure – the growth rate slows down, said Michael Gapen, an American chief economist for Bank of America. It would not take much more slowdown to switch the economy in a recession.”
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