The Unédic forecasts envisage a positive financial balance of just over 4 billion euros per year until 2024. This would accelerate the reimbursement of its debt of 59.2 billion of euros despite the slowdown in growth.
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In the current economic context, as particular as they are uncertain, the good news is accompanied by the greatest caution. No euphoria thus surrounded the publication, Thursday, October 20, of the financial forecasts of Unédic, the joint association responsible for the management of unemployment insurance. The moment, however, had something unprecedented by its positive character: this year, the regime has been excess for the first time since 2008, at + 4.4 billion euros. A figure all the more remarkable as it is more than twice as much as the organization provided in June. Above all, the latter tables on a result of the same order (+ 4.2 billion euros) in 2023 and in 2024.
“We are careful not to speak of a budgetary surplus, but rather a positive balance, with our level of debt”, nuanced the vice-president of Unédic, Jean-Eudes Tesson, member of Medef, during ‘A press conference at the body’s headquarters on Thursday. Nevertheless, the good health of unemployment insurance allows the UNEDIC to accelerate the reimbursement of this debt, which is certainly still important, at 59.2 billion euros at the end of 2022. Among which appear the 18 , 4 billion euros in COVID debt, whose issue of treatment is still not settled with the government. Debt covid aside, Unédic hopes to find in 2024 a lower debt level (32.8 billion) at its front crisis level (36.8 billion).
The unemployment insurance accounts take advantage of employment creations, which remain in dynamics in 2022 (+ 246,000) despite the slowdown in economic activity (increase in gross domestic product of 2.5 % Over one year, compared to 6.8 % in 2021), according to the note disseminated by the regime services. A phenomenon that stimulates social contributions, and, therefore, the regime’s recipes. The latter, however, provides a stop in 2023, both for employment creations (- 6,000) and for growth (+ 0.3 % of GDP) before a rebound in 2024 (+ 92,000 job creations and 1.6 % growth).
the double effect of inflation
Inflation also plays an important role in Unédic’s accounts, with two opposite effects. A first positive for revenue, with the increase in wages and therefore of the payroll. However, this parameter will have negative consequences in the longer term and “will result in a more sustained progression of the daily allowance paid to job seekers”, according to the Unédic. Indeed, the new beneficiaries who enter the system will have higher wages and, consequently, greater allowances.
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