Abolition of ISF still has no demonstrated effect on economy

On the other hand, the tax exile has slowed down since 2017, concludes the assessment committee for capital tax reforms, in its note published this Thursday.

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Have tax reforms at the beginning of the first Macron five-year term encouraged the easiest to invest in the economy the less taxed sums, thus benefiting by ricochet with all French? The question continues to haunt the second mandate of the Head of State, as shown by the electrical debates which held in the Assembly during the examination of the 2023 budget. To try to answer them, the Committee of ‘Evaluation of capital tax reforms was to publish, Thursday, October 20, the 2022 version of its work on the effects of the abolition of the solidarity tax on wealth (ISF), replaced in 2018 by a wealth tax Real estate (IFI), and the establishment of the single lump sum director (PFU or “flat tax”) of 30 % on capital income (interest, dividends, etc.).

The conclusions, once again, hardly serve the government. “The observation of major economic variables – growth, investment, household financial investment flows, etc. – before and after reforms is not enough to conclude on the real effect of these reforms. In particular, it is not Possible to estimate by this mere means if the abolition of the ISF has enabled the reorientation of the savings of the taxpayers concerned towards the financing of companies “, concludes the opinion of the committee, which Le Monde was able to consult. Let a word for word the same sentence as in the 2021 report.

Once it is not customary, it is a brief note of analysis produced by this committee made up of economists, representatives of INSEE or even social partners, and which has already submitted three reports Since 2019. The latest research has been launched until this summer, France Strategy, the assessment and prospective organization attached to Matignon which coordinates the Committee, has engaged in an update of the available data from ‘Elements of the Banque de France or the Directorate General of Public Finances.

Tax exile has slowed down

What confirm that the dividends received by people eligible for the PFU exploded from 2018, remaining since at an almost stable level. Even in 2020, the year of recession due to the coronavirus, they reached 23.6 billion euros (compared to 24.2 billion in 2019 and 14.3 billion in 2017). “This money does not come from nowhere, specifies Laurent Bach, researcher at the institute of public policies, professor at ESSEC and co -author of previous reports. For entrepreneurs or the great fortunes of the country, he was already on Bank accounts, housed in holdings instead of giving rise to immediate taxation. “In passing, the Committee refutes the idea that certain taxpayers (liberal professions, business leaders) would escape tax by pouring themselves into dividends Part of what they previously received in salary: “Households whose dividends have grown very strongly (…) have not on average reduced their activity income.”

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/Media reports.