Since the legislative elections in October 2021, the barons of politics have not yet managed to agree on a new president, nor to designate a Prime Minister, in a country where polarization has only been s ‘aggravate.
Le Monde with AFP
Get out of the political impasse after a year enamelled with violence and tensions: this is the objective of the Iraqi parliament which meets, Thursday, October 13, to try to elect a new President of the Republic, and thus pave the way for the formation of a government.
The most total uncertainty still hovers on this parliamentary session scheduled at 11 am local (10 hours in Paris) in the green zone, this Baghdad district completed by the security forces and sheltering ambassades and government institutions. Since the legislative elections of October 10, 2021, the barons of politics have not yet managed to agree on a new president, nor to appoint a Prime Minister. In a multi -clarification and multi -hethnic Iraq, polarization has only worsened.
in filigree appear the struggles of influences between the two great Shiite centers dominating power: on the one hand the pro-Iran factions of the coordination framework, on the other the unpredictable and tempestuous religious leader Moqtada al-Sadr .
Three failed election attempts
The Presidency of the Republic, a highly honorary function traditionally reserved for a Kurd, crystallizes the tensions between the two major historical parties of the important Kurdish minority. The post generally returns to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (UPK), while the Democratic Party of Kurdistan (PDK) keeps the upper hand on the affairs of autonomous Kurdistan. But now the PDK demands the presidency at Baghdad.
Three times this year, the Parliament has tried without success to organize the election of the president, failing to reach the two -thirds quorum required for the vote (220 deputies out of 329).
Among the thirty candidates, three profiles stand out. The outgoing president Barham Saleh, official candidate of the UPK, the former Minister Abdel Latif Rachid – a former Upk who presented himself on his own – and rebar Ahmed, Minister of the Interior of the region of Kurdistan and candidate of the pdk.
Once elected, the president may designate a Prime Minister – chosen by the greatest coalition in Parliament – which will then start arduous negotiations to form a government.
“It is not yet clear if the Kurdish parties have reached an agreement on a president,” said Hamzeh Hadad, guest researcher at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR). For the post of Prime Minister, “the favorite is Mohamed Chia Al-Soudani”, said the political scientist, in reference to the former minister and ex-Governor of the 52-year-old province, chosen by the Coordination. “But in Iraqi politics everything can change until the last minute”.
The Troublion Moqtada al-Sadr
In Iraq, since the American invasion which in 2003 overthrew Saddam Hussein, the Shiite community, majority, dominates power and its parties give the political life. This summer, the candidacy of Mohamed Chia Al-Soudani had set fire to the powders and caused tensions between the coordination framework and the Sadrist current-the supporters of Al-Sadr going so far as to occupy the surroundings of Parliament for a month.
But the coordination framework, which brings together in particular the ex-paramilitaries of the Hachd al-Chaabi and the former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki,-Historical Rival of M. al-Sadr-, never marched back. At all costs, this coalition wants to form a government. Today it represents the first force within the Parliament, after the unexpected withdrawal of the 73 deputies of the Sadrist current.
Accustomed to blows, the troublemaker of Moqtada al-Sadr politics requires a dissolution of parliament and anticipated legislative elections, above all. It remains to be seen what could be his reaction now. He has demonstrated in recent weeks his ability to destabilize the political spectrum by mobilizing tens of thousands of demonstrators in the streets.