Seismologists from the University of Cote-D’Azuirdiscovered a potentially accurate method of forecasting earthquakes. Kentin Bleteri and Jean-Mother Nock analyzed GPS data collected prior to earthquakes with a magnitude of 7 or higher. Their research was featured in an article by Roland Burgann from the University of California in Berkeley, published in the magazine “Science”.
For years, scientists have been seeking ways to predict earthquakes in order to give people advance warning. Even a few minutes of notice can save lives by allowing people to evacuate buildings that may collapse. However, identifying “predecessors” of earthquakes has always been challenging due to a lack of information about the conditions leading up to an earthquake.
Bleteri and Nok have found a way to reconstruct this information. They examined precise GPS data from areas surrounding the epicenters of 90 earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 7 in recent years. They observed a consistent pattern—a horizontal displacement between tectonic plates that caused the movement of the earth’s surface. This displacement, although too small to be detected by standard seismographs, was consistently observed two hours prior to each earthquake.
This study suggests the potential for developing a reliable earthquake forecasting system based on precise GPS measurements. However, Burgann cautions that further research is needed to validate the effectiveness of this precursor for all major earthquakes, or at least the majority of them. Additionally, advancements in GPS technology are necessary to enable continuous tracking of individual events.