Ancient pathogens have the potential to be “revived” as a result of the ongoing melting of ice, according to scientists. In order to investigate this threat further, an international team of researchers used digital simulations.
Giovanni Strone, the lead author of the study from the general research center of the European Commission, stated that “time travelers” could significantly alter the microorganism communities they infect. This new fundamental threat is currently being overlooked in studies on the impact of climate change on biodiversity.
To compensate for the lack of scientific information, experts utilized the AVIDA software for experiments. The results, published in the journal PLOS Computation Biology, revealed a mixed picture: the majority of ancient pathogens have a minimal effect on their neighboring ecosystems, but 3% of microbes enhance their position and become dominant.
In addition, 1% of this group produces unpredictable outcomes, ranging from the extinction of approximately a third of digital organism types to an increase in biodiversity of up to 12%.
This unpredictability is cause for concern. Even with a good understanding of the biological characteristics and environmental structure of new pathogens and local communities, predicting the outcome of an invasion is nearly impossible. Strone stated, “This complicates the assessment of risks and preparation for possible consequences.”
According to Strone, machine learning algorithms were unable to provide a clear solution to combating this threat. This underscores the necessity for further research and thorough observation of these “guests from the past.”
Among all the strategies for combating ancient bacteria, one stands out as the most effective: reducing emissions. Strone is convinced that if the ice continues to melt, significant environmental changes can be expected. Therefore, the best practical approach to mitigating this risk is to reduce emissions.