While the sinister anniversary of the first year of war in Ukraine approaches, the two camps are actively preparing for the third act, perhaps decisive, of the conflict. The first two will have been so many humiliating failures for the aggressor: Russia by Vladimir Putin. In March 2022, the Russian army, defeated before kyiv, had to fall back with considerable losses to Donbass. In the summer, powerfully rearmed from April by the United States, the Ukrainian army was able to succeed in a brilliant double offensive.
The counterattack, prepared by “war games” at the Pentagon, led, again, to a stinging defeat for the Russian army. But in this month of January, the horizon seems to darken again for the Ukrainian army. Mr. Putin is preparing for a long war, waiting for wear to make its effects on the other side.
On the other side, precisely, we begin to understand that time does not necessarily play in favor of Ukraine. Hence the urgency to end it as quickly as possible and win this war by an offensive as massive as possible in the coming months. It is this third turning point that seems to take shape these days.
Impulsed by the Biden administration, permanently spurred by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, the plan, announced by the deputy secretary of defense, Laura Cooper, on January 6, plans to give Ukraine all the means which she will need to change the dynamics, unravel the Russian lines of defense and reconquer her territories. In other words, it is no longer a question of helping Ukraine to defend itself, but rather of going to the offensive.
This is how ever more impressive deliveries were presented: additional $ 3 billion (2.8 billion euros), in addition to the $ 25 billion spent previously for armaments. It is also, beyond the Patriot anti-aircraft batteries, to deliver medium armored vehicles, even, soon, heavy tanks (decision expected at a meeting of allies on January 20).
risk Direct confrontation
Until now, the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, still resists pressure, refusing to authorize the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, in order to avoid taking a potentially dangerous step in climbing with Russia.
Faced with the risk of the rotting of the conflict, without real winner or defeated, with a hidden war that would settle in the long term – all of Ukraine becoming a kind of immense frozen conflict on the old continent -, facing To the other risk of seeing the support of Ukraine over time, the allies behind the United States seem ready to take that of irreparably sliding towards cobelliguerance, and an increasingly direct confrontation with the Russian forces, opening the way to possible slippages …
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