Platform for forecasts Polymarket was in the spotlight during the election race in the USA 2024. According to the site, users made rates in the amount of $2.7 billion for the outcome of the presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris planned at the beginning of November.
Two cryptocurrency research companies, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, revealed serious violations in the work of the platform. According to the results of independent investigations, a significant part of the trade operations on Polymarket are fictitious. According to the current indicators of the platform, the chances of Donald Trump for victory are estimated at 67%.
According to Chaos Labs, about a third of the trading volume in the betting market in the presidential election are manipulative operations – analysts have discovered signs of the so-called “Wash Trading” – forms of manipulation of the market, in which stocks are repeatedly bought and sold to create a false impression of the volume of trading and activity on the platform.
After a key court decision in September, who legalized the rates for the US elections, new forecast platforms entered the market, including Kalshi and Robinhood. However, Polymarket retains leading positions thanks to cryptocurrency architecture and work in offshore zones. At the same time, American investors do not have access to the platform. A week before the day of the election, suspicious activity on the platform raises questions about the reliability of the information presented.
Founded in 2020 and supported by venture investors, including Founders Fund, Peter Tilya, Polymarket initially planned to launch an electoral betting service in the United States. However, at the beginning of 2022, the Commission for Trade Futures (CFTC) forced the company to transfer activities offshore.
Unlike competitors Predictit and Kalshi, who received a work permit in the United States after winning in court against CFTC, Polymarket operates on the Ethereum blockchain. According to 26-year-old founder of the Shane Koplan, the main advantage of Polymarket is the one-ranking interaction of users and complete transparency of operations.
Trading volumes on Polymarket