A group of American scientists from the University of Brown have presented groundbreaking results of a study that could revolutionize our understanding of earthquakes and improve forecasting methods. Published in the prestigious scientific journal Nature, the study by geophysicists introduces a new approach to assessing seismic risk based on the geometric complexities of faults in the earth’s crust.
Traditionally, faults in geology were viewed as straight sections in rocks, similar to a cake sliced with a knife. However, the reality is much more intricate. Faults can exhibit zigzag patterns, form wave-like structures, create bends and gaps between rocks, and have jagged edges. Additionally, many faults intersect and overlap, forming intricate networks resembling a web.
These complex fault networks often serve as epicenters for earthquakes. A prime example is the San Andreas Fault, which extends over 1300 kilometers through California and Lower California in Mexico. This fault has triggered several devastating disasters, including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 earthquake that caused a highway to collapse in Oakland.
While conventional wisdom held that friction between rock blocks along fault lines was the primary driver of seismic activity, the new study suggests that the geometric intricacies of faults also play a crucial role. By analyzing the density and alignment of geological structures, the researchers, led by Victor Tsai, a geophysicist at the University of Brown, aim to improve earthquake predictions and identify high-risk areas.
Using data from the US Geological Survey, Tsai and his team focused on a specific region in California to assess the geometric complexity of faults. By understanding how faults are shaped and how they interact, scientists hope to enhance our ability to predict and prepare for major earthquakes.