carried by the surge of black gold since the beginnings of the Ukrainian conflict, the oil majors have accumulated nearly $ 60 billion in profits in the second quarter.
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Lots of noise for nothing. While the calls of the foot of Westerners have multiplied in recent weeks, and that the American president Joe Biden had even gone to Riyadh in mid-July to obtain from Saudi Arabia that it opens the valves, and This, in order to curb the outbreak of prices, the organization of the oil exporting countries (OPEC) will have finally decided only more than symbolic increase in its black gold production.
At the end of his last meeting, which was held on Wednesday August 3 in Vienna, the member countries of the cartel agreed with an increase certainly but only 100,000 barrels per day for the month of September, this which, with regard to the additional barrels fixed in the previous months, respectively 432,000 then 648,000, turns out to be marginal.
“While some see it as a failure of the American diplomatic initiative last month, underlines Vincent Manuel, director of investments at Indosuez Wealth Management, in fact, one of the real challenges remains the ability of OPEC to produce more. “Today, the cartel and its partners display a deficit of around 2.8 million barrels per day less compared to the last production agreement in June 2022.
Half of this lack of production comes mainly from Russia (1.4 million barrels per day), Nigeria and Angola, while Saudi Arabia produces slightly below its quota and United Arab Emirates are online. “Saudi Arabia and Emirates could jointly produce two million more barrels per day in theory,” explains Vincent Manuel. In addition to technical difficulties, geopolitics can explain the little enthusiasm: “Even if Saudi Arabia was willing to respond to American demands, partner countries like Russia – which have their saying about the raising of quotas – want to maintain high prices. “
a boon for the majors of the sector
sword in the water? On the price side, certainly in any case. After giving $ 2.5 % to $ 92 in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has remained in the comfort zone in which it has been operating for several weeks. Since the beginnings of the war in Ukraine, and speculation around Russian production, the latter had affected a higher, in March, at 123.70 dollars, level to which he returned to mid-June before slipping towards 95 dollars. In the past three months, this compaction of the prices coincides with the first signs of recession, the drop in long rates and fears about Chinese demand under the effect of the resumption of “zero covid” policy in Beijing.
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