Russia, Ukraine and Turkey are recently [July 22] reached the signing of an agreement which guarantees for the next four months Ukrainian cereal exports in the Black Sea. While the belligerents weigh more than 30 % of world wheat production (12 % for Ukraine), the war in Ukraine has aggravated the risk of famine.
In 2021, The UN already recorded 40 million additional people in food distress, and potentially more than 200 million at the end of 2022. This situation must lead the European Union ( EU) to conduct a coherent foreign policy and ensure its food sovereignty to avoid new crises.
limited effects
The Ukrainian conflict has strongly disrupted agricultural markets by blocking Ukrainian cereal exports.
On the one hand, part of the Ukrainian wheat fields were destroyed by the fighting. Ukrainian farmers have had difficulty accessing fertilizers and other inputs.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian ports were paralyzed by the blockade imposed by Russia and were partly destroyed by the bombings. Thus, more than 20 million tonnes of cereals (about 1 % of world consumption) cannot be exported.
If the effects on export volumes will be limited, it is, for Ukraine, a symbolic agreement to resume trade with the rest of the world. To compensate for this Ukrainian victory, Russia obtains in exchange for guarantees on its own agricultural exports, as well as the end of indirect blockages concerning maritime transport, imposed by Western countries.
While Russia has returned since the fall of communism with an offensive agricultural strategy to establish itself as a worldwide agricultural power, this agreement offers it economic prospects so as not to risk isolation and therefore continue its War effort on duration.
War in Ukraine marks the return of agriculture and food in geopolitical fold. The “food power” [“food power”] of Russia contributes directly to the flight of the wheat price, structurally above 400 euros per ton since the intervention in Ukraine [438 euros in mid-May, 325 euros per 22nd of July]. Indeed, Vladimir Putin was able to take the international community hostage since forty-five countries in the South import from Ukraine or Russia at least a third of their wheat consumption, like Egypt (102 million of ‘inhabitants) which imports 59 % of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia. This flight prices will have a double effect.
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