Despite the sanctions, Moscow has taken advantage of the surge in fossil fuels to support, over the last six months, its federal budget, and its war effort.
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One hundred and fifty-eight billion euros. This is the sum that Russia has pocketed in the first half, since the start of the invasion in Ukraine, thanks to its exports of hydrocarbons of which the European Union (EU) was the main recipient, note in A very supplied report, published Monday September 5, experts from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
“At least 43 billion euros entered the Caisses of the Russian State (in 2021, the federal budget was 230 billion euros) thanks to taxes and customs duties since the start of the war “, estimates Lauri Myllyvirta, the main author. At this stage, he adds, “These income exceeds the cost of Russian military expenditure which is estimated at 100 billion euros, while the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure is evaluated at 110 billion”. >
The reason for such a jackpot? The costs. Despite the sanctions, and the decline in EU imports, Moscow has skillfully able to compensate for the smallest volumes exported by the outbreak of prices, especially in European markets. On gas, for example, the spectrum of a drainage of flows has supplied stratospheric increases, wholesale prices having more than tripled compared to 2021. In other words, in July-August, exported volumes have dropped by 25 % Compared to 2021, over the same period, while income increased by 30 %. Result, “Gas imports may have dropped by 70 %, the export revenues from this country, they have practically not moved”.
In the first half, the EU was still the largest importer of Russian fossil fuels (85 billion euros), ahead of China, Turkey and India. With, within the EU, Germany in first place, then the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, and France (5.5 billion euros).
the China has supplanted Germany 2>
A panorama which should not fail to evolve in the coming months. Together, the EU, NATO and the G7 countries (in fact, the EU, Turkey and Japan) imported 56 % of the exports of fossil fuels in Russia in July-August. But this figure, although substantial, is down 75 % compared to the period before the invasion, especially in Europe.
Over the period, Russian gas sales (by “pipeline”) overall 56 %dropped, while those of liquefied coal and natural gas fell respectively by 29 %and 15 %. The only exception: black gold. In this area, on which EU’s embargo will only come into force from December 5, Russia even managed to increase sales (+ 19 %). Through new outlets, India, China, the United Arab Emirates or Egypt.
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