GDP growth will not exceed 2.6 % in 2022, according to INSEE. Inflation should reach 6.6 %, and diffuses more and more in all areas of the economy, and in particular to food.
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This is not yet completely dreaded, but perhaps the prefiguration of an “Annus horribilis” in 2023 for the French economy.
According to INSEE’s latest cyclical forecasts published Wednesday, September 7, growth for 2022 should be 2.6 %, the third quarter promises to be chisple ( + 0.2 % growth instead of + + 0.3 %planned before summer) and the fourth stone ( + 0.0 %, instead of + 0.3 %). A violent brake after the 6.8 % rebound in 2021, and above all a more than modest impulse to start 2023. At this stage, the growth acquired for next year is only of the order of + 0.2 %.
And again, these forecasts for France are a “central” scenario, as Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation at INSEE recalls. In other words, things can get better than expected, but can also deteriorate. Given the unknowns on energy and the increase in interest rates, a contraction of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter – therefore marking the first step towards the recession, which supposes two consecutive quarters of decline – “n ‘Is not excluded in the event of increased energy supply difficulties in Europe, “admits INSEE. It will be necessary to count with other vagaries, geopolitics, sanitary or climatic.
At the start of the 2022 school year, it is essentially tensions on production – supply problems, shortages, lack of labor – which weigh on activity and maintain inflation. The slight reflux recorded in August on prices, with an inflation rate returned to 5.8 % instead of 6.1 % in July should only be provisional, with a level expected at 6.6 % fine december. The figure would be much higher without the tariff shield, recalls INSEE, which estimates that it reduces the price increase by 2.5 points. >
Above all, inflation, which mainly affected energy at the start of the year, is increasingly spreading in all areas of the economy, and singularly to food. The rise in prices on the shelves of supermarkets could come close to 12 %, announces INSEE, while manufactured goods will display an increase of approximately 5 %. It is now the food post which is the first responsible for the rise in prices in France, thus doubling energy. A flambé “which is due to the growth of production prices”, explains Mr. Pouget, whether it is directly agricultural courses or the price of the energy necessary to transform, store or transport foodstuffs. In one year, production prices increased by 35 % in the agricultural sector, by 20 % in industry and 7 % in services.
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