The INSEE believes that this excess mortality can be explained “by the heat wave which occurred in mid-July, after a first episode of heat wave from mid-June”.
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Each new scorching episode revives in France the memory of the particularly deadly heat wave of 2003 and pushes to wonder how many people die because of the heat. In hollow, it is the ability of our societies to adapt to global warming that is in question. And, as with the COVID-19, the number of deaths that citizens are ready to accept or not.
In 2022, more than 11,000 additional people died between the 1 er June and August 22, compared to the same period in 2019 – last year without epidemic of COVID -19. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which draws up this assessment in a report published Friday September 2 , is careful not to give the precise causes of these dead but carefully argues that these figures “is probably explained by the Heat wave occurred in mid-July, after a first episode of heat wave from mid-June “.
In support of this hypothesis, the three peaks of mortality that have punctuated summer correspond to the three successive waves of heat. “The chronicle of the deaths all causes suggests a first peak of death around June 19 [then] a very clear peak on July 19”, specifies the INSEE, to which a peak seems to be added around August 4 and Another still around 11-13 August. In parallel, according to France’s public health reports devoted to monitoring the heat wave, the first episode, unprecedented by its precocity and its intensity, lasted from June 15 to 22; The second from July 12 to 25, with more intense emergency recourse from July 15 to 18. Finally, the third wave started on July 31 to end in mid-August.
increase of 13 % in July 2>
“It is impressive, these all -cause mortality figures are very high,” comments Sylvie Le Minez, responsible for the unit of demographic and social studies at INSEE. In July, excess mortality amounts to more than 6,000 people in total, with 1,750 deaths on average per day, an increase of 13 % compared to the same month of July three years earlier. The difference is a little less marked in June, which records approximately 1,700 additional deaths, an increase of 4 % compared to 2019.
August data, they are more questionable because still provisional. “From the second week of August, the figures are very clearly underestimated; the lifts are always incomplete with regard to the most recent data and, during this time of the year, they could be slower; In addition, some town halls transmit their data by paper and there is a deadline for entering figures, “explains Sylvie Le Minez. The data should be consolidated by the end of September.
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