The growth of France should reach 1 % instead of 1.4 % next year, said on Tuesday the Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire.
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A “responsibility budget”, which allows both to “protect the French” in the face of the effects of inflation and the energy crisis, to hold public finances, and to respect the ambitions of economic policy of the president From the Republic Emmanuel Macron: it is the thorny roadmap that Bruno Le Maire and Gabriel Attal started to unroll, Tuesday, September 13, with a view to the preparation of the finance bill (PLF) for 2023. The Minister of the Economy and his counterpart delegated public accounts, who will present the draft text in the Council of Ministers on September 26, were to transmit on Wednesday at the High Council for Public Finance the main economic hypotheses on which he is built.
While the main axes of this first budget of the new mandate seemed to be drawn this summer, the last weeks have come to upset everything. New burst of energy prices against the backdrop of war in Ukraine, dissemination of inflation at food prices, threatens a recession in Germany and China, fear of the indirect effects of the tightening of monetary policy on the economy: “The Economic situation is characterized by strong European and international tensions, “had to admit Bruno Le Maire, while repeating, as he has been doing since the start of the school year, that” France resists “and that it is not a question of” yielding to catastrophism “.
Result: France’s growth will wait at least 2.5 % this year, as expected, but Bercy has however been forced to lower its goal for 2023, up to + 1.4 %. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) is no longer expected at 1 % next year, while inflation should remain high at least until February, said the Minister of the Economy. It is still planned at + 4.2 % in 2023, and + 5.3 % this year (in July, the government was only tabling on 5 %).
“This forecast [1 % GDP growth] assumes that we were able to spend the winter in acceptable conditions. This is why we anticipated the implementation of sobriety, load shedding measures or The revival of nuclear production “, it is justified in Bercy. Public debt is expected to reach 111.5 % of GDP in 2022 and 111.2 % next year, according to projections from the ministry. 2> “slow down the drop in taxes”
How, under these conditions, hold the public finance objectives that the executive set for itself, and in particular the 5 % of public deficit in 2023, prelude to a return to 3 % at the end of the five -year term promised by the chief of the State?
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