Prices increased by 5.6 % over a year in September, a much lower pace than in other countries in the euro zone.
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At the heart of an ever more heckled euro zone, France consolidates its place as a good student on the inflation front. The consumer price index recorded a slight withdrawal in September, for the second consecutive month. Over one year, it was 5.6 % after 5.9 % in August and 6.1 % in July, according to provisional data published Friday September 30 by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE ). The harmonized index, which allows European comparisons, stands at 6.2 % in September, after 6.6 % in August, the lowest level in the euro zone.
This withdrawal is explained by the slowdown in energy prices (oil, which reached 120 dollars per barrel in the spring, fell to less than 90 dollars in September) and by the effect of the price shield put in work in France. For a budgetary cost of 24 billion euros, this device reduces inflation by around two points, according to INSEE estimates. 2>
food, the increase in the increase
“We cannot speak of a converse of trend, but rather of a temporary reflux”, tempers Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). “The peak of inflation is, a priori, not passed, it is rather expected for early 2023 with an increase in prices above 6 % which will gradually decrease to be around 4 % at the end of the year. “
The Banque de France, in a note also published on Friday, notes that this phenomenon is now “more internal” and “wider” than a few months ago. In other words, imported inflation linked to energy prices is now broadcasting in all sectors of the economy.
Starting with food, which has become the locomotive of the increase in France. “The increase reaches almost 10 % over a year. It is the first consumer position to contribute to inflation,” notes Julien Pouget, head of the Department of the economic situation at INSEE. The prices of fresh products make a spectacular leap, going from a rate of 3.5 % increase in August at 11 % in September.
For its part, the cabinet Asterès does not exclude, for the coming months, a revival of energy prices tension and underlines the increase “of production prices in the industry” which display an increase 25 % on average over one year. And that is without counting the gradual exit of the price shield which will lead to an increase of 15 % of the price of gas and electricity for consumers in early 2023.