A survey conducted by the German Marshall Fund confirms the favorable image that European and American public opinion of NATO and the EU have in the current war.
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The strengthening of the transatlantic relationship is one of the main consequences of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This development is highlighted by an in-depth investigation by the German Marshall Fund, an American institution aimed at promoting the links between the two banks of the Atlantic, with public opinion from eleven European countries, the United States, Canada and Turkey. This survey was carried out in June and July.
NATO is the main beneficiary, with nuances according to the country. Indeed, 78 % of those questioned consider that the alliance “plays an important role” for the safety of their country, instead of 67 % a year earlier. The enlargement of the organization in Finland and Sweden is acclaimed (73 %). Similarly, 72 % want an “important” United States in defense and security in Europe, when there were only 60 % in 2021.
This increase is not done at the expense of the European Union, since 81 % of those questioned in Europe deem the European Union (EU) also “important” for the security of their country. The views are identical with regard to the response to Russian aggression. Membership of the idea of judging Moscow for war crimes (74 %), the sanctions to apply (71 %), in economic (69 %) and military (66 %) of kyiv is also massive.
Similarly, the influence of the United States is deemed very mostly “positive” (57 %), behind that of the European Union (65 %), but far ahead of that of China (27 %) and A Fortiori that of Russia (only 15 % positive reviews). Likewise, Washington’s “reliability” increases from 5 points in one year (65 %instead of 60 %) while that of Germany, very high, is down three points (70 %).
Conviction of a decline in American influence
These favorable judgments should not, however, hide significant developments. The other main teaching of this survey lies in the conviction, including in the United States, of an inevitable decline in Washington’s leadership despite the demonstration that constitutes the enormous military support provided to Ukraine. While 64 % of those questioned continue to consider the United States in 2022 as “dominant power”, they are only 37 % to consider that it will be the same in five years.
China records a reverse movement (25 % think that it will be the most influential power, instead of 13 % today). In France as in Italy, public opinion even anticipates that China will be ahead of the United States. This prediction is accompanied by a relative distance from Washington in the way of managing European Union relations with Russia and China. With regard to the first, only 9 % of those questioned believe that the American canal must be favored, while 30 % opt for that of the European Union. The same goes for China. Indeed, 38 % believe that the European framework is best suited while only 11 % evoke cooperation with the United States.
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