While the institutes gave Lula winner in the first round, the scoring of the outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro obliges in a second round. A surprise which is explained in particular by a lack of data orchestrated by the presidential camp.
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It is a disoriented Brazil that woke up on the morning of Monday, October 3. The day before, the first round of the presidential election had led to an unexpected result, which no survey institute had been able to predict: the outgoing far -right president, Jair Bolsonaro, obtaining 43.2 % of the votes, hearing the favorite of Potting and leader of the left, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who came out with 48.43 % of the vote.
Despite a cataclysmic mandate, marked by the return of hunger, the wild deforestation and the drama of the COVID-19, the outgoing head of state has foiled all the forecasts and achieved unexpected performance. The latest survey of the DataFolha Institute, considered the most reliable in the country, gave on the eve of the first round the victorious workers’ party (PT) with 50 % of the votes against 36 % in Jair Bolsonaro.
The far -right leader will have given way very little to the left. Its 2022 score is more or less the same as in 2018 (46 % at the time). Jair Bolsonaro is leading in half of the Federation States, some of the most important. He obtained 51 % of the votes in Rio de Janeiro and in the Federal District of Brasilia. In the state of Sao Paulo, the most populated in Brazil, it has 47 % of the votes of a comfortable 7 -point lead on Lula.
Consequently, a question burns the lips: how were the pollsters to underestimate the vote in favor of the extreme right? “The problem does not come from the methodology”, insists the political scientist Mayra Goulart, who first points to an “absence of data”. The last Census of the Brazilian population dates from 2010 and its updating, now underway, has been delayed due to pandemic. “The models of the institutes are poorly calibrated and have not integrated the exponential increase in the evangelical population, very large majority favorable to Jair Bolsonaro”, underlines the researcher.
Failles of the Lula campaign
This is added the very attitude of certain far -right voters. For several months, Jair Bolsonaro has continued to throw the stigma on the survey institutes, described as “liars”. On September 20, an employee of the DataFolha Institute, Honni du Power, was insulted, assaulted and defeated by two supporters of the president in Ariranha, a small city in the interior of the State of Sao Paulo.
President-Candidat, Jair Bolsonaro, after the results of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, in Brasilia, October 2, 2022. Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters
“La faill ITE of surveys is also the result of a sabotage, organized at the top of the state, “insists Mathias Alencastro, researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning. For months, the power of the far right has indeed prompted its supporters not to respond to opinion surveys. “[We must] respond to any of them by the end of the election!!”, Written in capital letters on Twitter Ciro Nogueira, Minister of Casa Civil (sort of super-chief of Cabinet) by Jair Bolsonaro.
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