The institution tables on an increase in the planet’s gross domestic product at 2.2 % in 2023 against 2.8 % during its June estimates. A rhythm largely below that recorded before the war in Ukraine.
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The slowdown in global growth trained by the war in Ukraine is likely to be greater than expected, and no country will be spared. In its “intermediate economic perspectives”, unveiled on Monday, September 26, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) tables an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of the planet at 2.2 % in 2023 against 2.8 % during its previous estimates in June, a rate largely below that recorded before the conflict.
Forecasts for 2022 remain unchanged, at 3 %. The euro zone will be the most affected, with quasi-stagnation (0.3 %) in 2023, after a strong rebound in 2022 (3.1 %). Apart from Russia, Germany is the country of the G20 which will experience the most important dropout. Its GDP should contract 0.7 % in 2023, after an increase of 1.2 % in 2022, while that of France should increase by 0.6 %. “We will all have to pay a very high price for this war,” says Alvaro Santos Pereira, the chief economist of the OECD.
No state escapes the slowdown, with the exception of China, which is recovered from a year enamelled with confinements linked to the COVVI-19. Russia should, according to Mr. Pereira, know “the worst recession ever recorded by a G20 country in the past two or three decades”, with a 5.5 % GDP contraction in 2022 and 4.5 % in 2023.
Fébrile financial markets 2>
countries like India or China, which hesitate to condemn the Russian invasion in Ukraine, will indirectly undergo the consequences through the global increase in energy and food prices. This has accelerated, while spreading to other sectors of the economy.
Inflation should reach 8.2 % in 2022 in the economies of the G20, pushing central banks to tighten their monetary policies even more, even if it means slowing down the activity. “New interest rates increases are required in most major economies,” warns the OECD. Faced with rates that never stop flying, the financial markets are feverish.
Thus, the Dow Jones index of Wall Street touched its lowest level on Friday since 2020, and the dollar has reached heights, at the risk of scaring the capital of emerging countries. Inflation should remain high in 2023, at 6.5 % in the G20 countries, and slightly bending in France, Indonesia, Japan and Germany. A phenomenon that also strikes Asia, which led the Asian Development Bank (BAD) to be downwards, in mid-September, its growth forecasts for the continent at 4.3 % in 2022.
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