These figures, which cover a wider perimeter than the only general regime of social security funds, confirm the spectacular adjustment of accounts.
Le Monde with AFP
The Social Security budget for 2023 provides for a sharp decrease in 6.8 billion euros, but losses of the old age branch will be widening in the following years, according to the draft law consulted Sunday September 25 by the France-Presse agency. Since the abyssal record of 2020 (nearly 39 billion) due to the COVVI-19, losses have continued to be reduced: less than 25 billion in 2021, 17.8 billion this year and, therefore, 6.8 billion expected in 2023.
These figures, which cover a wider perimeter than the only general regime of social security funds, nevertheless confirm the spectacular recovery of accounts, first thanks to growth, now using inflation.
The rise in prices, and in its wake that of wages, dope contributions, which will result in 2023 by a leap of 4.1 % of revenues, when spending will only increase by 2.1 % . A situation that will mainly benefit the disease branch, the losses of which will be reduced by around 20 billion this year to 6.5 billion in 2023.
This result is however questionable, because largely due to the melting of the invoice linked to the COVVID, which would drop from more than 11 billion to only 1 billion in 2023. However, this provision “risks proving to be very insufficient” , according to the opinion of the High Council for Public Finance, quoted in the document. 2>
Budget lap
The savings measures are incommensurate: the government thus intends to attack the work stoppages issued in teleconsultation, whose cost is around 100 million euros, and strengthen the arsenal against social fraud. A call of the foot assumed to the right before a complicated debate in Parliament.
is added to it a budget sleight of hand, the text providing to transfer the 2 billion paid under the “post-natal maternity leave” to the family branch, which would still remain surplus in 2023 and the years following, as is the branch accidents at work. The disease branch would not, however, come out of red, its deficit having to continue to resolve at a much more moderate pace, to establish itself at 2.6 billion in 2026.
On an opposite trajectory, the old age branch could quickly take back the title of “sick man”. Yet close to balance this year (- 1.7 billion), it should plunge 2.7 billion in 2023 and up to 13.7 billion in 2026.
A balance “particularly sensitive” to the “projected slowdown in inflation”, because pensions are revalued at 1 er January according to the increase in prices observed the previous year. The anticipated increase of 4 % in July will certainly limit the impact in 2023, but the return of stick will be felt from 2024.
reluctance and threats of censorship motions
Consistent by “the demographic effects of aging” of the population, the old age branch will also be weighed by a “marked degradation” of the regime of territorial and hospital officials (CNRACL), trapped by the increasing use of contract workers. So many elements that should prevail on “the objective of progressive elevation of the effective aging age”, whose increase observed for fifteen years should continue in the short term.
The draft law does not, however, include any measure of pension reform, while the executive considers to introduce an increase in legal age or the duration of contribution by an amendment during the debates in the Parliament at the Parliament October.
This scenario, however, comes up against reluctance within the majority, while the left and far -right oppositions threaten to draw motions of censorship in the assembly. The executive nevertheless intends to carry out this reform by the summer of 2023, arguing the rapid and lasting return of deficits, pointed out in the last report of the pension orientation council.