After the summer decline, the incidence rates started to rise up to the start of the school year. The impact of this new episode seems difficult to anticipate.
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Epidemic recovery or eighth wave? For the Minister of Health, François Braun, Monday, September 19, at the microphone of France Inter , “It is too early to say that it is already the start of the eighth wave, but the indicators are on the rise.” Since September 6, the number of new cases has increased again, while the eight weeks of decrease which marked the reflux of the seventh wave let hope of a comeback without COVID-19. Las, the reproduction rate has exceeded value 1, a sign of a resumption of viral circulation, while the incidence rate increases in a contrasting manner according to the departments: it is the strongest in the Ardennes (374 new cases for 100,000 inhabitants), in Cantal (373) and in Haute-Saône (356).
In total, there are more than 25,000 new contaminations per day. The number of daily hospitalizations starts up slightly upwards (+10 % in a week), but not yet that of deaths. “We are on armed vigilance compared to this new wave which, all scientists say, will arrive,” added the minister.
The eighth wave is indeed expected for a long time. The last two years have shown the seasonality of the coronavirus, whose traffic is favored by the arrival of cold seasons. In addition, the succession of two waves carried by the same variant Delta, in July and October 2021, confirmed that the emergence of a new variant or undervail was not necessary to cause a new rebound. “The autumn wave is inevitable, due to several factors: all the elements that strengthen social interactions instead, the increase in time since the last vaccination injection and insufficient vaccination coverage for the second recall”, underlines Gilles Pialoux , head of the infectious and tropical disease service at Tenon Hospital in Paris.
Low vaccination coverage in children
Brewers linked to the returns of summer leave, and more precisely back to school, play, as often, an important role in this epidemic rebound characteristic of epidemics due to respiratory viruses. “As for seasonal flu, COVVI-19 first attacks children in kindergartens and primary classes and then to young people from secondary school, both because of the favorable conditions that the start of the school year provides to the propagation of the virus and the very Low vacation coverage of young people in France, underlines Antoine Flahault, director of the Global Health Institute, at the University of Geneva. The start of the school year therefore contains all the ingredients of an effective and rapid transmission of the coronavirus. ” Incidence of 0-9 year olds and 10-19 year olds who have more than doubled (respectively +122 % and +113 %) between September 7 and 9. Logically, the age group of their parents, 30-39 year olds, follows them (+42 %).
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