The increase in contaminations is “mainly carried by those under 20”, notes Public Health France, in a back -to -school, school and professional context.
Le Monde with AFP
“The circulation of SARS-COV-2 increased after several weeks of improvement in the epidemic situation,” said Public Health France, in its weekly point Thursday, September 15. A voucher of more than 67 % of the new cases of COVVI-19 recorded (from 33,263 to 19,866 a week earlier) was noted.
The number of tests (852,500), on the other hand, increased by 9 % the week of September 5 to 11, according to DREES, the statistical service of health and social ministries. A particularly marked increase in those under 16 (+ 56 %).
“The number of PCR tests is not very high currently and does not allow very reliable analyzes, but the trend seems to confirm at least a stop of the epidemic decline and possibly a rebound, premise of A possible new pandemic wave, “explains epidemiologist Antoine Flahault. “For two days, the reproduction rate of the virus is greater than 1, which is the robust signal of an epidemic recovery” noted the epidemiologist Mircea Sofonea.
back -to -school
The conjunction of two phenomena could explain this recovery:
- First, a certain immune decline in a population that has sometimes been contaminated or received its last vaccine many months ago. However, protection against infection is eroding over time.
- Then, the back -to -school, school and professional context, which more promotes brewing. The increase in contaminations is “mainly carried by those under 20”, starting with 0-9 year olds (+ 111 % the week of September 5 to 11), notes Public Health France.
This is not an unprecedented situation. At the same time in 2021, thanks to the start of the school year, the Delta variant, which had also caused a summer wave, returned to trigger an autumno-winter wave.
“It seems that the current dominant subvariant of Omicron, Ba.5, which has struck Europe this summer, spreads again since the start of the school year and progresses in all regions of Metropolitan France (except Still Corsica), and in almost all Western European countries, “said Antoine Flahault.
If an eighth wave should occur, it still seems difficult to predict its magnitude. Indeed, we do not know precisely how the population is currently immune. “We will stay in a certain fog for at least the next two weeks,” predicts Mircea Sofonea.
Based only on the dynamics observed in the previous two waves, “we should not run the risk of hospital saturation”, according to him. Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) sent a message of hope, judging the end of the pandemic “at hand” but inviting not to release the efforts to achieve it.
Only 30 % of the over 60s received the second dose of recall
In the meantime, in the absence of remarkable progress to improve the ventilation of closed places, France could still try to increase vaccination coverage in the face of a new wave. Despite the recommendations of the health authorities, only about 30 % of the over 60s received a second dose of recall.
In a few weeks, bivalent vaccines (targeting both the original strain of the virus and the omicron variant) will also be available in France. But the most risky people are invited not to wait to receive their fourth dose. At the beginning of next week, the High Authority for Health (HAS) will specify the articulation of these new vaccines in the French vaccination strategy.