In a context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the American currency has exceeded the euro for the first time since 2002. A supremacy that reflects power relations at work on the planet.
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What else? If the US dollar continues to confirm its hegemony, it is simply that there is nothing to replace it. What to buy instead: from the euro, when the old continent is under the full whip of the war in Ukraine and the energy shock? British book, which is hardly better off, less attractive from Brexit? Yen, in free fall, when Japan still maintains its levels at zero? From the Chinese Yuan, when the country sinks into the real estate crisis and represents a major geo-economic risk, under the neomaoist ferrule of President Xi Jinping? Or Bitcoin, which we found that its value was as volatile as a technological start-up on the Nasdaq?
Before any technical analysis on the dollar, the United States accumulates the assets: it is not threatened by the war; World world producer of hydrocarbons, they are not strategically weakened by the current energy shock; Their companies are experiencing flourishing financial health; The American economy is struck by inflation, but seems more ahead of its fight than its partners, especially European. In a context of economic, political and monetary uncertainty, the dollar is the refuge value of the moment.
In detail, the greenback is now worth more than 1 euro, for the first time since 2002. It has won 16 % in one year against the European currency. And this climb is generalized: it increased by 20 % compared to the British book, at the lowest since 1985, and 30 % compared to the Japanese yen, which regains its levels of 1998. It won 8 % compared to Chinese Yuan. Since the start of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal Index, the dollar has appreciated 13 % compared to all currencies. 2>
The most commonly advanced explanation is due to the rates. The federal reserve (Fed, American central bank) has raised them since March, and now pays money in the short term to a rate greater than 2.25 %. The rent for money will undoubtedly increase to 3 %, during the Fed monetary policy meeting at the end of September. Today, it is better to place your money in the United States, where the remuneration of state loans at ten years is 3.4 %, against 1.73 % in Germany and 0.25 % in Japan.
In today’s world, exchange for exchange is certainly defined by purchases of treasury bills, but more and more by purchases of stocks and business bonds. If the dollar rises, it is because investors around the world buy American actions, preferring Apple to Volkswagen – struck by the European crisis – or Alibaba and Tencent – taken over by the Chinese Communist Party. The profits of companies have so far resisted, and the prospects, even downward reviews, remain better in Europe.
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