For three days, the incidence rate has dropped, even if the peak of hospitalizations is still far from being reached. This seventh wave, largely worn by the Ba.5 subvariant, will probably reflect in the same general indifference which has seen it go up.
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It would seem that the peak of the seventh wave of contamination of COVID-19 is crossed in France. For three days, the incidence rate has been downwards, after reaching a level of 130,680 new cases per day on average. It will take a few more days to ensure that it is not a tray or a break in the flood, but the epidemiologists seem optimistic. Jean -François DELFRAISSY, the president of the scientific council -who must stop his activities on July 31 -, had first anticipated this peak for “at the end of June, in early July”, then for “end of July”. Reality is finally halfway.
“We observe a gradual slowdown in the number of new cases for several days, comments Pascal Crépey, teacher-researcher in epidemiology and biostatistics at the School of High Studies in Public Health in Rennes. This slowdown also occurs with a gap a week with the start of the school holidays; but we know that the holidays have a braking effect on the dynamics of the epidemic. “The reverse of this advantage conferred by the holidays is that they tend to disturb the indicators, the population adopting other behaviors. More trips, less use of tests and therefore a look at the somewhat biased epidemic, which should encourage caution.
The case of Ile-de-France, however, pushes the trend. In this region, where the wave of contaminations started earlier and stronger than in the rest of the country, the decline took a few days in advance. Despite a higher peak, its incidence rate has already returned to the national level, for the first time since the end of May. 2> 1,500 admissions per day
“However, you must be aware that the peak is the moment when the virus circulates the most during the wave. The contaminations remain very high”, with always more than 123,300 cases per day, warns Pascal Crépey. And even if the peak of contaminations seems to be crossed, it is still far from being the case for hospitalizations, which reflect the effects of the decline in general with ten to fifteen days of gap. “This peak of hospitalizations will be a real confirmation of the reflux of the wave, since it is an indicator that is not disturbed by the screening problem”, adds the epidemiologist.
Hospital admission still continue to climb at high speed, nearly 1,500 per day, with an increase of 27 % compared to the previous week. Same trend on the side of admissions to critical care (132 per day, +32 % in one week). The profile of people in resuscitation service does not vary: these are the most concerned 80-89 year olds. The same people who prove to be the most vulnerable in the face of very strong heat waves that are likely to punctuate in summer.
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