The budget of the general scheme and the old age solidarity fund would lose 16.8 billion euros, or 3.6 billion less compared to initial projections.
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In 2022, the finances of the welfare state could be a little less degraded than expected, while remaining sunk in the red. This is shown by a report by the Social Security Accounts Committee, presented Tuesday, July 12. The deficit of the general regime and the old age solidarity fund (FSV) would reach 16.8 billion euros, or 3.6 billion less compared to what was early. A correction attributable to the dynamics of the recipes, which is likely to be stronger than what the first costing made in the end of 2021.
If they are confirmed, the data revealed on Tuesday is part of the improvement trend observed after the shock caused by the health crisis. In 2021, the hole in the boxes of the “security” was partially absorbed, returning to – 24.4 billion euros (with the FSV) against – 38.7 billion in 2020, which constituted an unprecedented imbalance. The “perspectives” for the current exercise must however be commented with caution, because they intervene in a “context of more marked uncertainty” since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, as the report recalls.
The revenues garnered by the system in 2022 would be higher than 15.6 billion to “forecast” made in the social security financing law adopted in the last quarter 2021. A good surprise linked in particular to the favorable situation of the Employment, even if the net creations of posts run out of steam, over the recent period. At the same time, the backtracks would progress faster than expenses, despite various “additional costs”: measures “to meet the covid epidemic”, “anticipated revaluations at 1 era “, Raising the index point and continuation of the implementation” of the health segur agreements “which will increase the salary of staff in many care establishments, etc.
” cumul ” of charges
As in previous years, health insurance is the branch that suffers the most. Its balance “would straighten” certainly, but by remaining “very negative”: – 19.7 billion in 2022, against – 26.1 billion in 2021 and – 30.4 billion in 2020. This sector of social protection is confronted with A “cumulation” of charges: part of them have an “exceptional” character, in connection with the fight against the epidemic (purchases of vaccines, etc.), while others are durable – in particular those, Already mentioned, on the remuneration of agents.
Visital insurance, that is to say the basic pension plan for several categories of assets (private employees, self-employed workers, etc.), would also be in deficit in 2022, but in proportions much less than health insurance: – 2.3 billion euros. A result synonymous with slight deterioration (if it is verified), because, in 2021, the “hole” was smaller (- 1.1 billion euros). This development is largely explained by increased expenses, due to the anticipated increase in pensions (+ 4 % at 1 er July). At the same time, the FSV, which provides – among others – the financing of the minimum old age, would reconnect with the surpluses “for the first time since the financial crisis” of 2008 (+ 1.1 billion euros).