While the Russian company Gazprom begins the maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, the European Commission is preparing a “Emergency Reduction Plan for energy demand”.
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It is not yet panic among Europeans, but it is starting to look like it. Because, in terms of energy, Moscow is the master of clocks, who rations his gas deliveries to the old continent, sells him golden prices and his fossil energy. Monday, July 11, Russian Gazprom will start a maintenance operation for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which will largely deprive them of its services. It is a routine exercise. But, from Paris to Berlin, via Rome, we are concerned that at his end, on July 21, the Russian giant takes pretext for such or such problem to completely interrupt his supplies.
Winter, in this case, could be tough, since, before Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine on February 24, Russian gas represented 40 % of imports from the European Union (EU). According to a study of the Bruegel reflection center published on July 7, the twenty-seven should reduce their gas consumption by 15 % compared to the pre-war period, if Moscow were to interrupt its deliveries, and this in the event that The season would not be too rigorous. For France and its Italian and Spanish neighbors, which are well interconnected, the case would be without consequences. On the other hand, for Germany, it would mean a fall of 29 % of its request and for the Baltic States of 54 %.
“We must prepare for new disruptions of the gas supply, even a complete cut on the part of Russia,” warned Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, before the Parliament of Strasbourg, July 6. “It would not be a big surprise that [Gazprom] said:” We cannot revive [Nord Stream 1], we detected a problem during the maintenance operations “”, had alerted Robert Habeck, the German vice-chancellor, June 30. “Putin will tell us: you can always use Nord Stream 2”, fears a senior official, while Berlin, after having long procrastinated, finally decided not to put the new gas pipeline into service.
deliveries Coupées or reduced
One thing is certain, no one in Europe, today, talks about a gas embargo. Until the end of May, the question nevertheless animated the debates between those, like Poland or the Baltic States, which considered inadmissible that the twenty-seven finance the war of Putin by buying hydrocarbons, and those who, like the Germany feared the consequences of such a sanction on their economy.
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