The Débate Directory Board, Thursday, July 7, on the projections of the number of assets, which would move back from 2040. The potential impact of this trend on the accounts of the Pensions regimes did not still been evaluated.
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This is a series of studies likely to consolidate in their convictions all those who campaign for a decline in the legal retirement age. From 2040, the active population could decrease in France. This trend had certainly been “anticipated”, but with a lesser magnitude, as indicated by documents which must be debated, Thursday, July 7, during a meeting of the Pension Orientation Council (COR). Such a development attracts attention, because it could have “a negative impact on the financial situation” of pension plans.
The active population designates people who work and those who are unemployed (that is to say unemployed, looking for a position and available immediately to occupy it). In 2021, there were 30.1 million. Their number would continue to increase in the years to come, but shorter and shorter than expected, according to simulations revealed on June 30 by INSEE. In 2040, there are 30.5 million, or 400,000 more than two decades, then the decline would begin, to bring the workforce to 29.2 million in 2070.
In its previous calculations made in 2017, INSEE led to very different results. Its so -called “central” scenario – most often selected – tapped on a continuous progression for half a century: 29.5 million in 2015, 31.1 million in 2040, 32.1 million in 2070. Its latest annual report published in 2021 had made new projections, based in particular on low fertility hypotheses. An exercise that had resulted in down-oriented figures from 2040: 31.5 million that year, then 30.6 million in 2070.
fewer contributors and more retirees
Ultimately, it would be less: 29.2 million in 2070, therefore, if we believe the data disseminated on June 30 by INSEE. These revisions are explained by several reasons. First, underlines the horn, the “number of women of childbearing age” is less important than expected, which then weighs on the “number of anticipated births” and, ultimately, on the workforce of assets. Second factor to take into consideration: the migratory balance, that is to say the difference between the number of people who enter the territory and the number of people who leave it. This parameter would be lower, with – in particular – fewer individuals of working age or to search for a position.
Finally, the census questionnaire was renovated, which “made it possible to improve the measurement of the population”, by better identifying “multi -presidents situations, in particular children in shared residence”: the latter “could be , in some cases, counted twice, “according to the Cor. In summary, there will be fewer young people and assets and more seniors than what we expected. Which could also mean fewer contributors and more retirees.
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