After a negative first quarter, GDP should progress in the coming quarters, according to INSEE, which also predicts an acceleration of prices to reach, in September, an inflation rate around 7 %.
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France should escape, at least for the year 2022, the so dreaded recession. Despite a negative start to the year, annual growth would reach 2.3 %, a figure certainly moderate after the 6.8 % of 2021, the year of post-Cavid catch-up. But “not very far from the average pace of the decade of health before”, underlines the INSEE in its conjuncture note published Friday, June 24. So much for the good news.
The bad is that France, like the world economy, has not finished with inflation. Consumer prices, up 5.2 % in May – an unprecedented level since 1985 – will continue to increase in the coming months, and not only because of energy. Inflation will “widen”, increasingly touching on services, and always food and manufactured goods, due to the chain effects of the increase in production prices. At the end of June, it should reach 5.9 %, then come close to 7 % in September, before stabilizing at the end of the year, according to INSEE calculations, which is based on the hypothesis of a barrel of oil oil at 120 dollars (111 euros).
strong uncertainties
These forecasts remain tainted with strong uncertainty: the evolution of gas and raw materials in the coming months will depend on the appearance of the curve. Furthermore, a complete break in supplies with Russian energy products or new confinements in China could “test” this scenario and announce much stronger inflation. Note also that without the price shield set up by the executive at the beginning of the year and renews Thursday, June 23, and the delivery to the pump, the increase in consumer prices, in France, would have been even higher , of the order two points, reaching around 7 % in May and 9 % at the end of the year.
Suffice to say that with an inflation which will continue its race and which digs inequalities, purchasing power will be more than ever at the heart of concerns. The French were indeed affected differently by the rise in prices. In April 2022, the average level of inflation in France was 4.9 %. But for a farmer or a person over 75, it was actually 5.9 %, when it was “only” for a person under 30, calculated the ‘INSEE.
These differences are mainly explained by energy expenditure and the consumption structure of these audiences, according to the weight of their food purchases. Overall, all categories have undergone an erosion of their purchasing power in the first half. This has also resulted in consumer cessation, down 1.5 % over the first three months of the year. The second quarter could announce an improvement in the situation of households: the successive revaluations of the minimum wage – a new increase before probably intervening this summer -, the point of index of the public service, pensions and social minima, the announced triple of The bonus of purchasing power, the abolition of the fee scheduled for the end of the year will support household income.
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