To compensate for very important human losses, the Russian Parliament has eliminated the age limit to engage. The capacities of the military-industrial sector to redo the armaments stocks would be still quite robust despite weaknesses.
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One of the main unknowns of the war in Ukraine, while the conflict enters its fifth month of fighting, is based on the endurance capacity of Russia. A resilience on which the sources are lacking and all the more difficult to assess that the opacity also remains around Ukrainian military capacities and Western weapons deliveries.
Officially, the former red armor has lost very few men since the start of the conflict. His latest assessment, published on March 25, reported 1,351 soldiers killed and 3,825 injured. Since then, no indication has been given by Moscow. According to analysts, these losses are actually ten times greater, at least. “In four months, the Russian army has probably lost more than 10,000 men, said Dimitri Minic, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI). It is considerable, especially in an army that lacks infantry. “Some Russian battalions would only have a thirty men, against 600 to 800 in normal times, says the British Ministry of Defense.
Damage is even more important among the Moscow supplies, sent on the front line in the Donbass. On June 16, the authorities of the “People’s Republic of Donetsk” (RPD) revealed that they had lost 2,128 soldiers since the beginning of the year, to which must be added 8,897 injured. These losses would represent “approximately 55 %” of the forces of the self -proclaimed republic, according to the British soldiers, who underline, in a press release published on June 22, “the extraordinary attrition of the Russian and prorussian forces in the Donbass”.
To replace them, Russia would have few reserves. According to analysts, some 200,000 Russian and separatist soldiers are currently engaged in fighting, which represents a good part of the workforce. “80 % of the Russian army is already in Ukraine. (…) They do not have many other forces to mobilize, and those which are not professional, not trained, and cannot be equipped”, Estem Kori Schake, Director of Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, an American think tank close to conservative circles.
arsenals inherited from the Soviet era
Sign of this hemorrhage, Moscow multiplies initiatives to get back its battalions. At the end of May, the Duma, the lower room of the Russian Parliament, suppressed the age limit to engage in the army, previously fixed at 40 years. From now on, all citizens who have not reached retirement age, currently set at 61.5 years, can join the ranks of the Russian army. Likewise, military authorities have considerably increased the sales paid to new recruits. The use of the Chechen forces of Ramzan Kadyrov or the mercenaries of the Wagner group is also widely documented.
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