In twenty years, the abstainers’ party has continued to grow. On June 12, 52.4 % of voters did not move to vote despite the political issue of the ballot. Another paradox, the two most traditionally penalized political families by the low participation have achieved historically high scores.
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The legislative elections are no exception: once again, abstention broke a record in the first round, Sunday June 12, reaching 52.49 %. And we can fear that the same scenario will occur, Sunday 19: in 2017, 57.36 % of voters had not moved to the second round against 51.3 % a week earlier. Since the inversion of the electoral calendar in 2002 – where the presidential election now precedes the legislative election -, the abstentionists have continued to see their ranks grow. Twenty years ago, 35.6 % sulk the ballot boxes for the election of deputies, almost 17 points less than today.
Because the abstentionist phenomenon is massive and structural. The latest electoral meetings are proof of this: in 2019, almost 50 % of French people did not vote for Europeans; In 2020, there were 55.25 % to stay at home for the first round of the municipal elections; In 2021, for regional, 66.72 %. The only exception, the presidential election, with 26.31 % abstention in the first round, 28.01 % in the second (increasing figures, however, compared to 2017). Each time, the same profiles are concerned, those most distant from politics, namely: young people, non-graduates, workers and employees.
“political de-socialization”
However, in 2022, the legislative campaign was restless, especially on the left. The creation of the new popular, ecological and social union (Nuts, bringing together rebellious France, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and Europe Ecologie-les Verts) and its “Mélenchon Prime Minister” order made it possible to create an issue Politics for an election which has, for twenty years, that of confirmation of the results of the presidential election.
With their promise of cohabitation, the Mélenchonists arise as the main opponents of the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron. And, above all, they give the voters disappointed with the non-qualification of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round of the presidential election the possibility of taking their revenge, and to win, perhaps, the “third round”. But that was not enough.
“The hyperpolarization between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron left people aside, especially on the right, who said they could not prevail and that it was not worth Going there, “wants to believe Brice Teinturier, Deputy Managing Director of Ipsos. Thus, according to a survey by Ipsos-Sopra Steria into the vote of the French (carried out from June 8 to 11, on a representative sample of 3,995 people, according to the quota method), 49 % of respondents found the campaign “nonexistent “; 36 % “disappointing”, and only 15 % deemed it “interesting”. The electorate of the cloud is pronounced in the same way, in almost equal proportions.
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