Only one majority will have emerged from the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12. That, very clear, of the non-voiding. For the second time in the history of the V e Republic, the number of abstainers exceeds half of the electoral body: 52.48 % for this new record set after the 51.30 % of 2017 2017 .
At this democratic disaster, several causes have been identified for a long time. It is enough to follow the collapse of the participation curve since the implementation of the five -year term, twenty years ago, to ensure that with this reform the presidentialization of our diet weighs an even increased weight, which devitates parliamentary ballot. More recently, the crisis of representation has further accentuated the disorder on the figure of the deputy, whose intermediate place, enters local rooting and national role, seems less and less understood.
At the study of these long -term factors, political scientists will be able to add that of the very particular phenomenon which has just occurred, during the weeks which followed the re -election of Emmanuel Macron. The president, and the officials of his camp, themselves chose to abstain … to argue, to clarify, to debate, in short, to play a central role of animators of this electoral campaign. Perhaps by excessive confidence in the order of things: so far, the legislative elections have granted a bonus to the winners of the presidential election, and nothing to its losers. Undoubtedly also by calculation, a low participation that does not necessarily constitute bad news for a political party which can count on easier, more graduate, older, all more inclined categories to move to vote.
This tactic turned against its promoters, struck, on the evening of the first round, by the demobilization of their camp. It is an undeniable setback for Emmanuel Macron, whose score is lower than that of his re -election, and whose electoral base is, for the time being, narrower than that of all his predecessors. It is a provisional victory for the coalition that has formed around Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who succeeded in creating the reverse dynamics: drawing on his elimination from the first round of the presidential election for these legislative elections. The union of the left parties around his person does not earn them a score superior to the addition of their votes obtained in 2017. But their unit blew up the lock of the majority ballot, by opening the doors with almost 400 second laps next Sunday.
a clarification which is essential
In the state of voting projections, it is very unlikely that the outcome of these duels offers Mr. Mélenchon the post of Prime Minister of Cohabitation that he has been claiming for eight weeks. Its coalition, which should constitute a powerful opposition force, nevertheless threatens to force the size of the presidential majority. As if the advantage given by the central position of the “at the same time” began by being eroded by an unexpected resurgence of the right-left divide. Attacked on his left, the presidential party could find himself very dependent on his right. Within his coalition together !, If a narrow absolute majority placed the formations of Edouard Philippe and François Bayrou in a position of force. Or even vis-à-vis the group that LR deputies will form, on the way to saving many of their seats, if the majority should only be relative.
These underground movements have not cracked the third block of the presidential election. With the abstention record, this is the other source of concern for this ballot: the national rally of Marine Le Pen progresses significantly compared to his score of 2017. Despite her nonchalant campaign, the extreme candidate right does not see, for the first time, its training fall heavily. And the presence of 208 of his candidates in the second round imposes a clarity which unfortunately the presidential party has missed on Sunday evening, suggesting that he would not give a national voting instruction against the RN, at the countdown of the position taken by Some of its members. Monday morning, he seemed to evolve without clearly calling for the Republican Front.
Between republican parties, mobilization against the extreme right cannot be invoked according to circumstances. Mr. Macron’s party cannot call to block him to access or keep himself in power, then not to apply this imperative to himself, except to deny his identity and the values he claims. In the moving landscape of this in-between-tours, this clarification, and this unambiguous rejection of all electoral cynicism, stand out without delay.