The coalition together! would obtain 28 % of the voting intentions against 27 % for the alliance of the left, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde” carried out on Friday, June 10. Abstention could be massive, Sunday June 12 for the first round.
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Less than 48 hours before the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, the differences are still very reduced between the two main centers. Own candidates! – Coalition bringing together the Republic En Marche (LRM), horizons and the modem – bring together 28 % of the voting intentions (margin of error of more or less 1.3 points), just before those of the new popular, ecological and social union – Nuts, which brings together rebellious France (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party (PCF) and Europe Ecologie -les Verts (EELV) – which collect 27 % (same margin of error). The national rally (RN) is distant (19 %, margin of error over 1.1 points). However, if we add the expected score of reconquest, the formation of Eric Zemmour (5.5 %, margin of error more or less 0.7 point), the extreme right pole would reach around 24.5 %.
Another essential data: abstention also promises to be massive and could break the 2017 record (51.3 %). With a planned participation between 45 % and 49 % (average weight of 47 %), it could therefore be between 51 % and 55 %.
These are the main lessons of the electoral investigation carried out on June 10 by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Monde. For this survey, 8,159 people, selected according to the quota method, were questioned. The voting intentions for June 12 are calculated from respondents “some of going to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 4,641 people, hence low margins of error, between 0.2 points and 1.3 point.
This tripartition between a left pole, a centrist pole and an extreme right pole is tangible since the results of the first round of the presidential election where Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon brought together almost 73 % of the votes cast. However, if in the presidential election M le Pen had succeeded in exceeding (very little, approximately 420,000 votes) Mr. Mélenchon, the legislative elections take a completely different turn.
By succeeding, first to rally the main training courses of the parliamentary left, then to impose his “Mélenchon Prime Minister” order, the “rebellious” leader is now as the main opponent of the chief of the State. A strategy that seems paying, at least for the first round of the legislative election, since if we take into account the margin of error, the cloud could well pass – in terms of voice – in front of together! In addition, the certainty of voting in favor of the clip is very strong, up to 85 % (overall voters! Are sure of their choice at 86 %).
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