Russia tries to conquer all the Donbass, while the Ukrainian forces launch a counter-offensive in the Kherson strategic region, in the south.
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For Western analysts, it is today an acquired fact. The conquest of the totality of Ukraine, envisaged at the beginning of the conflict by Moscow, is an objective now unattainable for Vladimir Putin. By pushing the Russian assaults on kyiv from the first days of war, the capital, the Ukrainian army buried the dreams of grandeur of the Kremlin. “It is now almost certain that the” statocide “projected by Moscow (…) will not take place”, writes the political scientist Bruno Trtrais in a note from the Montaigne Institute, published on May 31.
If she has not officially changed her war goals, who are still to “clear” and demilitarize Ukraine, Russia has adapted to this initial failure. Moscow is now focusing on the conquest of Donbass, the most eastern region of the country. After having failed to take control of power in kyiv, “Russia had to reassess its objectives and focuses almost exclusively on the East”, assured, 1 er June, Julianne Smith, the representative permanent United States with NATO.
Failing to conquer the entire Ukraine, the taking of the Donbass would allow Moscow to display a symbolic victory. Since 2014, Prorussian separatist forces have occupied part of the Oblasts (regions) of Donetsk and Louhansk. But, despite their offensives, they never managed to completely conquer these two territories. “If Putin succeeds in passing the Donbass under his control, he will be able to organize a referendum there and attach this territory to Russia”, predicts a military source. A half-victory which would put into perspective the losses linked to the “special operation” of Moscow.
fear of a “Russian arc”
Except that the Ukrainian troops demonstrate fierce resistance in the pocket of Louhansk. For several weeks, intense fights have taken place in particular for control of the city of Sievierodonetsk, where the Russians have been progressing, but cannot boost the Ukrainians beyond the Donets river. “It may be necessary to withdraw” from the city, nevertheless alerted the governor of the Louhansk region, Serhi Haïdaï, Wednesday June 8, on the channel 1+1.
If this resistance makes it possible to “fix” Russian troops in Donbass, military specialists nevertheless believe that kyiv’s priority is to win back the Oblast of Kherson, in the south of the country, where Ukrainian troops are ‘Offensive for several weeks. Today in the hands of the Russians, this region is indeed a step towards Odessa, port of the Black Sea by which most of the Ukrainian cereal crops are exported. Above all, it is located 170 kilometers from the Transnistria, Moldovan enclave in the hands of Prorusses. Connect the two zones would cut Ukraine access to the Black Sea and strangle its economy.
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